Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Face Uphill Task in Defending Thursday's Lows Amid Ongoing Ceasefire Uncertainty

Nifty 50 Remains Range-Bound Ahead of Key Psychological Level

The Nifty 50 is expected to continue its range-bound movement until it decisively breaks above the psychological 24,000 level and witnesses positive progress in the ceasefire. Above this level, 24,300-24,500 are likely to be crucial hurdles. Immediate support is placed at around 23,650–23,700 (near Thursday's low of 23,683), followed by 23,450–23,500 (20-day EMA) as a key support zone.

The Bank Nifty needs to defend the 54,600 (near Thursday's low)–54,400 support range for stability, which could raise hopes for a move toward 55,800–56,200. However, a fall below this support may open the door to 54,000–53,500 levels, experts said.

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Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities, notes that the Nifty failed to witness follow-through buying after the recent gap-up and faced rejection near the 24,000 zone, indicating supply at higher levels. However, the index managed to close around the 0.382 Fibonacci support at 23,770–23,750, which remains a key make-or-break level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to sustain above 50, suggesting that momentum has not weakened. On the upside, 24,250–24,300, near the 0.50 retracement and 50-EMA, forms a strong resistance cluster, with Call writing around 24,000–24,200 and Put support near 23,700–23,500. India VIX near 20 indicates elevated volatility. As long as the index trades within 23,750–24,250, range-trading dominance remains the preferred strategy, with a breakout on either side likely to dictate the next directional move.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

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• Key Resistance: 24,000, 24,200, 24,300
• Key Support: 23,750, 23,600, 23,450

Strategy for Nifty

Traders may consider a short straddle for the April 13 expiry by selling one lot of 23,800 CE at Rs 200 and one lot of 23,800 PE at Rs 190. This setup is designed to capitalise on potential range-bound momentum.

• Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly, with the maximum mark-to-market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 12,000 to ensure disciplined risk management.
• Target: Hold this strategy, aiming for a maximum mark-to-market (MTM) profit target of Rs 25,000, while considering profit booking once MTM gains exceed Rs 12,000.

Nifty Rebound from April 2 Low

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services, notes that the Nifty rebounded strongly from the April 2 low. On Wednesday, it witnessed a sharp rally with a massive 731-point gap-up, moving nearly 900 points in a single session—this gap remains unfilled. In the last two sessions, the index has faced stiff resistance near the psychological 24,000 level.

Considering the entire fall from the February 3 high to the April 2 low (a 15.79 percent decline), the current rebound has retraced about 38 percent of that move. On the daily timeframe, price action and indicators suggest a neutral-to-positive bias in the short term, favouring range trading—buying near the lower end of the gap support and selling near higher resistance.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

• Key Resistance: 24,000, 24,200, 24,450
• Key Support: 23,650, 23,500, 23,150

Strategy for Nifty

The outlook remains cautiously positive. For the short term, buy Nifty futures near the support zone of 23,500–23,600, with a stop-loss at 23,150, targeting 24,000, 24,200, and 24,450.

Bank Nifty Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities, notes that Nifty Bank failed to sustain the prior rebound and slipped below the 55,000 zone, indicating fading momentum at higher levels. The index continues to face strong resistance near 55,800–56,000, which aligns with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-EMA, making this cluster a key supply area.

On the downside, 54,500–54,400, near the 0.382 retracement, acts as immediate support. A breach of this band could revive selling pressure and expose the index to lower levels, including gap support.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

• Key Resistance: 55,200, 55,600, 55,900
• Key Support: 54,500, 54,200, 53,800

Strategy for Bank Nifty

Traders can look to initiate short positions in Nifty Bank April futures on a pullback towards the 55,300–55,350 zone, keeping a strict stop-loss above 55,550. On the downside, profit-booking targets are placed in the 54,800–54,700 range.

Bank Nifty Rebound from April 2 Low

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services, notes that Bank Nifty also rebounded strongly from the April 2 low and relatively outperformed Nifty. On Wednesday, it delivered a powerful move with a massive 2,188-point gap-up, rising nearly 3,000 points in the session—this gap remains unfilled. In the last two sessions, it has faced resistance near the 55,800 level.

Considering the full fall from the February 19 high to the April 2 low (a 19 percent decline), the current rebound has retraced about 50 percent of that move. On the daily timeframe, price action and indicators suggest a neutral-to-positive bias in the short term, favouring range trading—buying near the lower end of the gap support and selling near higher resistance.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

• Key Resistance: 55,800, 56,800, 57,800
• Key Support: 54,180, 53,600, 52,700

Strategy for Bank Nifty

The outlook remains cautiously positive. For the short term, buy Bank Nifty futures near the support zone of 53,600–53,800, with a stop-loss at 52,000, targeting 55,800, 56,800, and 57,800.