Market Outlook: Bears Tighten Grip Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Key Figures:

• Nifty 50: trading decisively below long-term moving averages
• Brent crude oil prices: above $110 a barrel
• Nifty 50: expected to break below 24,300 and move towards 24,000-23,800
• Bank Nifty: likely to breach 57,400 (200-day EMA) and fall below 57,000

Market Overview

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The market is expected to remain cautious with volatility on the higher side, following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Nifty 50 tumbled 315 points (1.27 percent) to 24,450, while the Bank Nifty plummeted 1,273 points (2.15 percent) to 57,783. Market breadth favored bears, with 1,804 shares seeing selling pressure against 1,136 advancing shares on the NSE.

Technical Analysis

• The Nifty 50 has witnessed a vertical decline, distorting the near-term price structure.
• An upward-sloping trendline connecting the August 2025 swing lows and February 2026 swing lows has been breached, confirming a "Head and Shoulders" pattern breakdown.
• The RSI on both the daily and weekly charts has started trending lower, indicating rising negative momentum.

Resistance and Support Levels

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• Key Resistance: 24,700, 24,850
• Key Support: 24,300, 24,000

Trading Strategy

• Sell Nifty Futures on a bounce around 24,700, with a stop-loss of 24,850, targeting 24,200-24,000.

Market Sentiment

• India VIX surged 45 percent last week to 19.9, reflecting heightened market nervousness.
• The Nifty has formed a long-legged spinning top, signaling indecision as the index hovers near the crucial horizontal support and the bullish gap zone of 24,164-24,379.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

• Key Resistance: 24,600, 24,750
• Key Support: 24,300, 24,100

Trading Strategy

• Sell Nifty Futures around 24,550 with a stop-loss of 24,700, targeting 24,300-24,100.