MarketSmith Analyst Raja Venkatraman Recommends Five Stocks to Watch

Indian Stock Market Rallies on Crude Oil Price Decline and Global Sentiment

The Indian benchmark indices ended sharply higher on Monday, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining more than 1%, as a steep decline in crude oil prices and strong global market cues lifted investor sentiment.

The Sensex climbed 1,073.61 points, or 1.42%, to close at 76,488.96. During the session, the index surged as much as 1,143.72 points, or 1.51%, to touch an intraday high of 76,559.07. Broader market participation remained positive, with 2,785 stocks advancing, 1,535 declining, and 211 remaining unchanged on the BSE.

The Nifty 50 rallied 312.40 points, or 1.32%, to settle at 24,031.70, reclaiming the 24,000 mark amid broad-based buying across sectors.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Market sentiment was also aided by the Indian rupee's appreciation against the US dollar and robust buying interest in banking and financial stocks, traders said. Global sentiment improved overnight after fresh optimism emerged around potential progress in US-Iran negotiations. Comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting that discussions with Iran were “proceeding nicely” triggered a sharp correction in crude oil prices and improved overall global risk appetite.

Asian markets reacted positively to the developments. South Korea’s Kospi surged nearly 3% after resuming trade post-holiday, while Dow futures jumped more than 400 points as falling oil prices supported expectations of easing inflationary pressure globally.

For Indian markets, softer crude prices continue to remain a key macroeconomic positive. Lower oil prices directly ease concerns around imported inflation, fiscal stress, and pressure on corporate input costs for an oil-import-dependent economy like India. This may continue supporting selective buying interest in sectors such as banking, automobiles, paints, logistics, and industrials.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

However, despite the positive global backdrop, today’s session carries elevated structural risk because of the monthly Nifty F&O expiry. Expiry-driven positioning is likely to dominate intraday market behaviour far more than pure fundamentals.

Stocks to Buy Today

Raja Venkatraman, Co-founder of NeoTrader, and stock research platform MarketSmith India, recommended buying these five shares - JSW Steel Ltd, Bank of Baroda, Adani Energy Solutions Ltd, ION Exchange (India) Ltd, and Fedbank Financial Services Ltd.

JSW Steel Ltd

• Current Price: ₹1,289.40
• P/E Ratio: 48.30
• 52-week high: ₹1,320
• Volume: 8.1M
• Technical analysis: Support at ₹1,240, resistance at ₹1,450
• Risk factors: Volatile raw material costs, currency fluctuations, regulatory risks, and debt burdens

Buy: above ₹1,292 Stop loss: ₹1,240 Target price: ₹1,410 (2 Months)

Bank of Baroda

• Current Price: ₹272.25
• P/E Ratio: 7.02
• 52-week high: ₹325.55
• Volume: 11.73M
• Technical analysis: Support at ₹266, resistance at ₹288
• Risk factors: Intense deposit competition, economic uncertainties that could impact its international book, and asset quality risks

Buy: above ₹273 Stop loss: ₹266 Target price: ₹288 (2 Months)

Adani Energy Solutions

• Current Price: ₹1,404.30
• P/E Ratio: 295.33
• 52-week high: ₹1,463
• Volume: 3.05M
• Technical analysis: Support at ₹1,250, resistance at ₹1,750
• Risk factors: Highly leveraged balance sheet, vulnerability to regulatory and tariff revisions, and large debt requirements for capital-intensive infrastructure

Buy: above ₹1,405 Stop loss: ₹1,325 Target price: ₹1,560

ION Exchange (India) Ltd

• Current Price: ₹408
• P/E Ratio: 30.08
• 52-week high: ₹580.75
• Volume: 12.67M
• Technical analysis: Reclaimed its 21-DMA on above-average volume
• Risk factors: Execution delays in large projects, dependence on industrial capex cycle, working capital intensive business, slow government order execution, margin pressure from raw material costs, high competition in water treatment sector, order inflow volatility, regulatory and environmental policy risks, economic slowdown affecting industrial demand, project-based revenue fluctuations, client concentration in certain sectors, rising technology investment needs, export demand uncertainty, delayed payments from government entities, and valuation risk during weak order growth

Buy at: ₹404–410 Target price: ₹470 in two to three months Stop loss: ₹380

Fedbank Financial Services Ltd

• Current Price: ₹165
• P/E Ratio: 16.89
• 52-week high: ₹178.48
• Volume: 56.31 crore
• Technical analysis: Broke out of Cup-with-handle base
• Risk factors: Rising NPAs during economic slowdown, dependence on borrowing costs, intense competition in NBFC sector, regulatory tightening risk, margin pressure from higher interest rates, credit risk in MSME segment, liquidity and funding risk, slower loan growth risk, economic slowdown affecting collections, dependence on rural and semi-urban demand, asset-liability mismatch risk, higher provisioning requirements, market share pressure from banks, technology and cybersecurity risks, and valuation risk in weak credit cycle

Buy at: ₹163–166 Target price: ₹200 in two to three months Stop loss: ₹152