Market Outlook: Turbulent Week Ahead

Key Developments

• The joint US-Israeli military strike against Iran has intensified the Middle East crisis, dictating market sentiment and fueling investor anxiety.
• Gold and US Treasuries are in high demand as safe-haven instruments, while the energy sector is under intense scrutiny following the strikes.
• Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged 10% to approximately $80 per barrel in over-the-counter trading on Sunday.

Market Projections

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• Analysts suggest that oil prices could potentially test the $100 mark if disruptions persist.
• In the short-term, expect a spike in oil price (5% to 10%), lower US rates, gold up, and equities down a little (around 1%).

Economic Indicators

• The week ahead will see significant economic indicators, including:
  • February payrolls report
  • Auto sales figures
  • Manufacturing and services PMI data

Earnings Season

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• High-profile results expected from major companies, including:
  • Alibaba
  • CrowdStrike
  • Broadcom

US Economic Calendar

• March 2 (Monday):
  • S&P final US manufacturing PMI for February
  • ISM manufacturing for February
  • TBA Auto sales for February
• March 4 (Wednesday):
  • ADP employment for February
  • S&P final US services PMI for February
  • ISM services for February
  • Fed Beige Book
• March 5 (Thursday):
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ended February 28
  • US productivity Q4
  • Import price index for January
• March 6 (Friday):
  • US employment report for February

Q4 Earnings

• Following companies are due to report fourth quarter results:
  • Riot Platforms
  • Core Scientific
  • Plug Power
  • CrowdStrike
  • Ross Stores
  • Broadcom
  • Okta
  • Costco
  • Alibaba

US Stock Market Last Week

• American equities tumbled as investors continued to sell off shares in companies perceived as vulnerable to the artificial intelligence transition.
• Market sentiment was further dampened by a higher-than-expected inflation report.
• Key indices:
  • S&P 500: down 29.98 points, or 0.4%, to 6,878.88
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 521.28 points, or 1.1%, to 48,977.92
  • Nasdaq composite: down 210.17 points, or 0.9%, to 22,668.21
  • Russell 2000 index: down 44.93 points, or 1.7% to 2,632.36