Market Outlook: Nifty 50 Trade Setup, Geopolitical Tensions, and Precious Metal Prices to Influence Monday's Trading

Indian Stock Market Poised for Cautious Open Amid US-Iran War Tensions

The Indian stock market is expected to open on a cautious note on Monday, following a sharp sell-off on Friday due to persistent selling pressure. The Nifty 50 index declined by 317 points (-1.25%) amid concerns about the deepening US-Iran war and its impact on global markets.

Key Technical Indicators:

• The Nifty 50 index has breached the crucial 25,350 support level, indicating a shift in near-term sentiment.
• The Gift Nifty Live Index suggests a gap-down opening on Dalal Street, with a decline of 0.35% from its previous close.
• The Nifty 50 remains vulnerable, with a retest of the 25,000 psychological mark expected if global tensions escalate further.

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Market Sentiment:

• The rapid deterioration in Middle East stability has triggered a broad risk-off sentiment across global markets, prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets.
• Gold and silver prices have rallied sharply, while crude oil surged nearly 9% in early Asian trade amid concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• The combination of geopolitical stress and expiry-driven positioning is expected to amplify intraday swings, keeping traders cautious and reactive to global headlines.

Market Outlook:

• The Nifty 50 index is expected to face immediate resistance in the 25,300-25,350 zone, while a strong support base is positioned around 25,000-25,050.
• Gold and silver prices are expected to open with a gap-up, with COMEX gold hitting $5,400 an ounce and COMEX silver touching $96.930 per ounce.
• If the COMEX silver rate breaks and sustains above $95/oz, a spot silver price of ₹3,00,000 per kg is expected, with the silver rate in India potentially touching ₹3,00,000 per kg.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

FII-DII Data:

• Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian stocks worth ₹7,536 crore on Friday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹12,293 crore in the last session of February.
• FIIs have ended as net sellers in eight consecutive months, with the last net sale of ₹6,640 crore in February.