
Market Outlook: Key Developments to Watch Ahead of the May 12 Opening Bell
Indian Markets Under Pressure as Nifty 50 Falls for Third Straight Session
The Nifty 50 succumbed to selling pressure on May 11, falling 1.5 percent and extending its weakness for a third straight session. Despite this, the index managed to defend the lower end of the 23,800-24,500 trading range. Bears gained strength as the index traded below all key moving averages, while momentum indicators witnessed a negative crossover.
Key Levels for the Nifty 50
| Level | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| 23,947 | 23,795 | |
| 23,993 | 23,748 | |
| 24,069 | 23,672 |
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The index formed a sizeable bearish candle on the daily timeframe after a gap-down opening, signalling that bears are gaining control. The short-term and long-term moving averages trended downward, and the index fell decisively below the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the April rally, indicating further weakness. The RSI dropped to 46.11, while the MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the histogram bar turning red for the first time since April 2.
Key Levels for the Bank Nifty
| Level | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| 54,846 | 54,356 | |
| 54,998 | 54,204 | |
| 55,243 | 53,959 | |
| 55,809 | 53,687 | |
| 57,195 | 52,798 |
The Bank Nifty declined 1.57 percent amid above-average volumes, extending its southward journey for a second straight session after a negative opening. The banking index formed a red candle on the daily timeframe and remained below all key moving averages. The index traded below the 23.6 percent as well as the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of the April rally.
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Options Data for the Nifty and Bank Nifty
Nifty Call Options Data
| Strike Price | Open Interest |
|---|---|
| 24,500 | 1.32 crore |
| 24,000 | 1.23 crore |
| 24,200 | 1.07 crore |
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,000 strike, which saw an addition of 1.01 crore contracts, followed by the 23,900 and 23,950 strikes, which added 82.05 lakh and 51.19 lakh contracts, respectively.
Nifty Put Options Data
| Strike Price | Open Interest |
|---|---|
| 23,500 | 1.03 crore |
| 23,800 | 64.88 lakh |
| 23,600 | 64.37 lakh |
The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,600 strike, which saw an addition of 21.87 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,500 and 23,800 strikes, which added 21.11 lakh and 19.77 lakh contracts, respectively.
Bank Nifty Call Options Data
| Strike Price | Open Interest |
|---|---|
| 56,000 | 11.94 lakh |
| 55,000 | 5.83 lakh |
| 55,500 | 4.62 lakh |
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 55,000 strike, with the addition of 1.82 lakh contracts, followed by the 54,500 strike and 56,000 strike, which added 92,760 and 91,860 contracts, respectively.
Bank Nifty Put Options Data
| Strike Price | Open Interest |
|---|---|
| 56,000 | 7.59 lakh |
| 54,000 | 6.17 lakh |
| 55,000 | 6.01 lakh |
The maximum Put writing was placed at the 54,500 strike, which added 83,700 contracts, followed by the 54,600 strike and 53,500 strike, which added 58,230 and 50,340 contracts, respectively.
Market Sentiment
The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) fell to 0.76 on May 11, compared to a 0.93 previous session. The increasing PCR indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.
Volatility
The India VIX jumped 10.17 percent on Monday to the 18.55 level, indicating discomfort for bulls. A move above the 20 zone could pose major risks for bulls, while a fall below the 17 level is necessary for bulls to regain traction.
Funds Flow
| Funds Flow | Value (Rs crore) |
|---|---|
Stocks with High Delivery Trades
| Stock | Delivery Trades |
|---|---|
Stocks Under F&O Ban
Stocks banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
Stocks added to F&O ban: SAIL
Stocks retained in F&O ban: Nil
Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil
Investor Takeaway
Monitor the Nifty 50's performance and adjust trading strategies accordingly.
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