Market Outlook for May 15: Key Factors to Consider Ahead of the Opening Bell

Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Continue to Navigate Volatility

The Nifty 50 index witnessed a 1.2 percent surge on May 14, fueled by follow-up buying. However, the broader market trend remains in favor of bears, with the index consistently trading below key moving averages, which continue to trend downward. Momentum indicators signal sideways action, indicating a cautious undertone despite the recent recovery.

The 23,800 level, near Thursday's high and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the correction from the February high to the April low, is expected to act as an immediate hurdle for the index. A convincing move above this level can open the door for 23,900-24,000, the next resistance zone. However, as long as the index stays below 23,800, the 23,400 level can act as crucial support going forward, according to experts.

Index	Resistance	Support
Nifty 50	23,765, 23,848, 23,982	23,497, 23,414, 23,281
Bank Nifty	54,364, 54,648, 55,107	53,446, 53,162, 52,703

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Key Levels for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty

Index	Resistance (Pivot Points)	Support (Pivot Points)	Resistance (Fibonacci Retracement)	Support (Fibonacci Retracement)
Nifty 50	23,765, 23,848, 23,982	23,497, 23,414, 23,281	-	-
Bank Nifty	54,364, 54,648, 55,107	53,446, 53,162, 52,703	54,422, 55,809	52,798, 51,532

Nifty Call Options Data

According to weekly options data, the 24,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (69.23 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. The 23,800 strike (41.2 lakh contracts) and 23,700 strike (39.78 lakh contracts) follow closely.

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Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,700 strike, which saw an addition of 15.2 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,750 and 24,400 strikes, which added 8.09 lakh and 5.84 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 23,900 strike, which shed 16.31 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,500 and 23,400 strikes, which shed 14.41 lakh and 10.37 lakh contracts, respectively.

Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike (73.38 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. The 23,500 strike (68.35 lakh contracts) and the 23,400 strike (67.4 lakh contracts) follow closely.

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,700 strike, which saw an addition of 33.83 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,600 and 23,500 strikes, which added 26.41 lakh and 25.21 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 24,300 strike, which shed 3.88 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,200 and 24,400 strikes, which shed 1.61 lakh and 67,600 contracts, respectively.

Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to monthly options data, the 55,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (6.17 lakh contracts). This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. The 55,500 strike (4.91 lakh contracts) and the 54,000 strike (4.68 lakh contracts) follow closely.

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 54,200 strike, which saw an addition of 26,280 contracts, followed by the 54,300 strike (15,330 contracts) and 53,300 strike (10,200 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 54,000 strike, which shed 91,770 contracts, followed by the 55,000 and 53,500 strikes, which shed 76,380 and 39,660 contracts, respectively.

Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 54,000 strike (7.52 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index in the short term. The 53,000 strike (6.48 lakh contracts) and the 53,500 strike (4.79 lakh contracts) follow closely.

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 54,000 strike, which added 1.01 lakh contracts, followed by the 53,000 strike (84,510 contracts) and 53,500 strike (46,320 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 53,600 strike, which shed 41,580 contracts, followed by the 55,000 and 54,600 strikes, which shed 39,900 and 29,850 contracts, respectively.

Funds Flow (Rs crore)

Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) jumped to 1.17 on May 14, from 0.93 compared to the previous session. The increasing PCR indicates a firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market.

India VIX

The fear gauge, India VIX, snapped a four-day gaining streak and fell 4.18 percent to 18.61, providing support to the bulls. However, it needs to fall decisively below the 18 zone for the bulls to gain further comfort.

Market Activity

A long build-up was seen in 96 stocks, indicating a build-up of long positions. Long unwinding was observed in 16 stocks, indicating a decline in long positions. Short build-up was seen in 32 stocks, indicating a build-up of short positions. Short-covering was observed in 69 stocks, indicating a decrease in short positions.

High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades, indicating investing interest in the stock.

Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit. Kaynes Technology India has been added to the F&O ban list. SAIL has been retained in the F&O ban list. No stocks have been removed from the F&O ban list.