NIFTY23,4060.33%
SENSEX74,3460.41%
BANKNIFTY54,1860.88%
NIFTY IT29,3845.57%
PHARMA24,0870.33%
AUTO26,0930.05%
FMCG48,1241.01%
METAL13,5350.17%
REALTY762.601.39%
ENERGY40,1970.02%
NIFTY23,4060.33%
SENSEX74,3460.41%
BANKNIFTY54,1860.88%
NIFTY IT29,3845.57%
PHARMA24,0870.33%
AUTO26,0930.05%
FMCG48,1241.01%
METAL13,5350.17%
REALTY762.601.39%
ENERGY40,1970.02%

Market Update: Volatility Persists Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The Indian equity market remains volatile, with the Nifty benchmark index experiencing its steepest monthly drop since the pandemic-era crash of 2020, shedding over 9% on a month-to-date basis.

Technical Analysis

According to Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the nearest support zone for the Nifty is the 22,650–22,600 band. A break below 22,600 could lead to further declines, with potential targets at 22,400 and then 22,200.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

On the stocks front, Emcure Pharma is expected to sustain its uptrend as long as it remains above Rs 1,580. HEG and Graphite India have moved above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a shift towards a positive bias and potential for further upside. Anthem Biosciences has strong momentum indicators, reinforcing its positive momentum.

FII Flows and Market Sentiment

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have continued their aggressive selling, offloading Rs 4,367 crore on Friday and extending their selling streak to 20 consecutive sessions. This has pushed the cumulative outflow to Rs 1,22,379 crore in the current month. The long-short ratio has stayed muted in the 10–15% range since early March, highlighting the dominance of short positions in index futures.

Macro Environment

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

The Indian Rupee has depreciated 4% since the escalation of geopolitical tensions on February 28, reflecting a strong US Dollar environment. This has dampened FII sentiment and led to continued capital outflows.

Key Takeaways

  • The Nifty benchmark index remains vulnerable to downside risks in the near term.
  • The 22,650–22,600 band is the nearest support zone for the Nifty.
  • Emcure Pharma, HEG, and Graphite India are expected to continue their uptrend.
  • Anthem Biosciences has strong momentum indicators, reinforcing its positive momentum.
  • FII flows and market sentiment remain bearish, with continued selling pressure and lack of conviction among institutional investors.

Investor Takeaway

Investors should be cautious of potential downside risks in the near term due to FII flows remaining under pressure.

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