Market Outlook: 15 Key Factors to Consider Ahead of the Opening Bell on May 19
Market Overview
The Indian stock market witnessed a modest gain of 0.03 percent on May 18, with the Nifty 50 recouping all its significant initial losses. However, the momentum indicators and oscillators remained bearish, indicating a continuation of short-term weakness. The VIX and oil prices also remained elevated, signaling risk for the bulls.
According to experts, the index is expected to trade in the 23,250-23,800 range in the short term. Above this range, 24,000-24,100 are the levels to watch. However, sustaining below 23,400 can drag the index down towards 23,250, followed by the 23,100 level.
Key Levels for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty
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| Index | Key Levels (Pivot Points) | Special Formation |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | Resistance: 23,699, 23,788, 23,933 | Bullish candle with a noticeable lower shadow and filled the opening bearish gap, indicating buying interest emerging at lower levels. |
| Support: 23,410, 23,320, 23,176 | The index continued to trade below the 10 and 20-day EMAs, both of which trended downward, suggesting prevailing bearish undertones in the market. | |
| Bank Nifty | Resistance: 53,667, 53,876, 54,214 | Filled the opening bearish gap and formed a bullish candle with a long lower wick, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels. |
| Support: 52,992, 52,783, 52,445 | The index sustained below all key moving averages, with a bearish crossover in momentum indicators, indicating weakness in the broader trend. |
Options Data
| Index | Strike Price | Open Interest | Special Formation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,000 | 1.26 crore | Maximum Call open interest, which can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. |
| Bank Nifty | 55,000 | 8.49 lakh | Maximum Call open interest, which can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. |
| Nifty 50 | 23,000 | 1.24 crore | Maximum Put open interest, which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. |
| Bank Nifty | 53,000 | 8.75 lakh | Maximum Put open interest, which can act as a key support level for the index in the short term. |
Market Sentiment
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The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) rose to 1.24 on May 18, from 1.01 compared to the previous session. The increasing PCR indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market.
India VIX
India VIX extended its upward journey for another session and rose 4.47 percent to the 19.63 level, sustaining above all key moving averages, signaling concern for the bulls.
Funds Flow and Stocks
A long build-up was seen in 34 stocks, indicating a build-up of long positions. 77 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding. 74 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.
F&O Ban
Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit. Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil. Stocks retained in F&O ban: Kaynes Technology India, SAIL. Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil.
Investor Takeaway
Investors should be cautious and watch for key levels to spot profitable trades.
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