Key Market Triggers in Focus: US-Iran Tensions, Oil Prices, and Q4 Earnings

Indian Stock Market Sees Two-Session Winning Streak End Amid Global Volatility

The Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 ended their two-session winning streak on Friday, May 15, due to profit booking triggered by weak global market sentiment, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the rupee slipping to a fresh record low against the US dollar.

The Sensex declined 161 points, or 0.21%, to close at 75,237.99, while the Nifty 50 dropped 46 points, or 0.19%, to settle at 23,643.50.

Market Outlook Next Week

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According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, markets in the coming week are expected to remain highly volatile and intensely headline-driven, with investor sentiment continuing to hinge on developments surrounding the ongoing US–Iran conflict, diplomatic negotiations, and movements in global energy markets.

Ponmudi noted that the broader mood remains cautious, as investors weigh the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough against the growing risk of a prolonged geopolitical and energy-driven disruption.

Top 5 Triggers for the Indian Stock Market

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Key Developments

• The war and the ensuing negotiations near the three-month mark since the conflict began, with Iran announcing a proposal for managing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend the ceasefire by another 45 days and resume discussions on a political resolution.
• Crude oil prices surged more than 3% on Friday after remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran's foreign minister weakened expectations of a potential agreement to halt ship attacks and seizures near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent crude futures settled at $109.26 per barrel, rising $3.54, or 3.35%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended at $105.42 per barrel, up $4.25, or 4.2%.
• The Indian rupee plunged past the 96-per-dollar level on Friday before ending at a record low of 95.81 against the US currency, weighed down by rising crude oil prices and mounting inflation concerns.

Expert Insights

• Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking, noted that participants will closely monitor developments in the ongoing US–Iran conflict and their implications for crude oil prices, inflation, and global risk sentiment.
• V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, stated that the continued selling pressure by FPIs, coupled with a widening current account deficit, has significantly weighed on the rupee.
• Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, predicted that the rupee traded weak by 11 paise near 95.95 after slipping below the 96.00 mark intraday, pressured by rising crude oil prices.