JP Morgan Sees Brent Oil Prices Surpass $100 Despite Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Global Oil Prices Expected to Remain in Low $100-Per-Barrel Range
Global oil prices are likely to stay in the low $100-per-barrel range for much of this year even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as early as next month, according to a fresh note from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Supply chains across the region are expected to take months to normalise.
The bank's latest analysis suggests that oil prices should remain in the low $100s for most of the rest of this year, averaging $97 for 2026 as a whole. This forecast comes as Saudi Aramco warned that the market could remain disrupted into 2027 even if the Strait reopens soon.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has had a significant impact on global energy flows, with Brent crude rising above $105 a barrel on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump said Iran's response to Washington's peace terms was "totally unacceptable." However, JPMorgan expects Brent to remain in the low $100s even under a June reopening scenario.
Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data
Table: Comparison of OPEC Crude Output
| Month | OPEC Crude Output (bpd) |
|---|---|
| March 2026 | 20.87 million |
| April 2026 | 20.04 million |
| Year-over-Year Change | -830,000 |
The latest forecast from JPMorgan comes as Saudi Aramco's chief, Amin Nasser, told investors on Monday that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will still take months for the market to rebalance. Nasser also warned that the global market is losing around 100 million barrels of oil every week while shipping remains disrupted through the Strait.
Meanwhile, a Reuters survey showed that crude output by OPEC fell by 830,000 barrels per day in April to 20.04 million bpd, underscoring the severity of supply disruptions caused by the Hormuz bottleneck. With Brent back above $100 and major producers warning of prolonged supply tightness, the focus in energy markets is shifting from whether the Strait reopens - to how long it takes for the global oil system to fully recover.
Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline
Investor Takeaway
Oil prices may remain in the low $100-per-barrel range for most of this year.
More in Economy
Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data
US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline
MoSPI Releases Uniform Norms for DDP Estimates with 2022-23 Base Year
