Jindal Steel Sees Target Price of Rs 1289: Prabhudas Lilladher

Jindal Steel Posts Strong Q4FY26 Performance, Maintains 'Accumulate' Rating

Jindal Steel (JINDALST) has reported a strong operating performance in Q4FY26, driven by a sharp recovery in steel prices and robust volume growth led by the ramp-up at Angul. The company's volumes grew approximately 23% year-over-year, while realizations also improved with a net sales revenue (NSR) increase of approximately 7% quarter-over-quarter, supported by higher flats and longs prices during the quarter.

This led to a sequential improvement in profitability, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) per ton at INR10,103 (INR11,218 including foreign exchange gains), despite some pressure from higher coking coal costs. The start-up costs of approximately INR1.25 billion in Q4 (compared to approximately INR15 billion in Q3) are now fully behind. The management highlighted that the ramp-up of newly commissioned capacities is progressing well, with volumes expected to scale up further, while realizations remain supportive with current prices higher than Q4 levels, although raw material costs are expected to remain volatile.

Analyst Outlook

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We expect Jindal Steel to achieve an EBITDA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% over the low base of FY26. At the current market price (CMP), the stock is trading at 10.4x/7x enterprise value (EV) of FY27/28E EBITDA. Our research team maintains a 'Maintain Accumulate' rating with a revised target price of Rs1,289 (earlier Rs1,265), valuing the company at 7.5x EV of March 28, 2028 EBITDA.