ITC Q4 2026 Earnings: Analysts Weigh Impact of Cigarette Tax Hike

ITC Q4 Results Expected to Show Subdued Performance Ahead of Earnings Announcement

ITC Limited, India's leading diversified conglomerate, is set to report its Q4FY26 results today, 21 May, 2026. The company's Board of Directors will meet to consider and approve the audited standalone and consolidated financial results for FY26, as well as a proposal for a final dividend for FY2026.

Ahead of the earnings announcement, the stock rose 0.9% to its day's high of ₹310.30 on the BSE. However, the stock has shed 5% in the past 3 months, 24% in the last 6 months, and 28% in the past 1 year.

According to brokerages, ITC's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) business is expected to maintain healthy growth momentum, but weakness in the cigarette and agri segments may keep overall revenue growth largely flat during the quarter.

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Analysts expect ITC to continue implementing calibrated cigarette price hikes over the coming months to fully offset the higher tax burden while protecting market share from illicit trade and downtrading. However, they note that the company is yet to achieve full pass-through of the recent tax increase, which may continue to impact cigarette volumes and profitability in the near term.

According to Nuvama Institutional Equities, cigarette net revenue and EBIT are likely to decline around 3% and 7%, respectively, during the March quarter. The brokerage expects cigarette volumes to remain flat compared to 7% growth in the December quarter and 5% growth in the year-ago period.

Despite weakness in cigarettes, Nuvama expects ITC's non-cigarette FMCG business to post nearly 10% revenue growth, aided by improving margins and favourable base effects. The brokerage also estimated that agribusiness revenue may decline around 10% year-on-year, although profits from the segment could still improve sharply due to margin recovery.

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In the December quarter, ITC reported a standalone net profit of ₹5,088.83 crore, down 6.1% year-on-year from ₹5,421.36 crore. Revenue from operations during Q3FY26 rose 5.8% year-on-year to ₹19,359.46 crore compared with ₹18,290.24 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

Investors are likely to closely track management commentary around rural demand recovery, pricing actions in cigarettes, raw material cost trends, and the sustainability of margins across FMCG and agri businesses going forward.