Iran Conflict Escalation to Maintain Commodity Price Volatility Ahead of FOMC Meeting and China Economic Data Releases

Global Financial Markets Update: March 14, 2026

Key Highlights

• The US Dollar Index surged to 100.54, its highest level since May 2025, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions in West Asia.
• Oil prices jumped 30% to $119.5 per barrel, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US Treasury yield rose, pricing in just one rate cut towards the end of the year, as markets increasingly fear stagflationary pressures.
• US equity indices declined for a third consecutive week, with the three major indices falling over 1%.
• Precious metals, including COMEX gold and COMEX silver, faced pressure due to the stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields.

Market Performance

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

• Zinc recorded the smallest decline, followed by aluminium, which edged lower to settle around $3,439 per tonne.
• Copper ended the week lower at around $12,780 per tonne, weighed down by the stronger US dollar, rising oil prices, and broader macro uncertainty.
• Crude oil prices surged 30% to $119.5 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude posting gains of around 10% for the week.

Economic Data

• Weekly jobless claims fell to 2,13,000.
• Housing starts rose to an 11-month high.
• Fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7%.
• The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, edged up to 3.1%.

Outlook

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

• Markets will focus on the upcoming policy decision from the Federal Reserve, which may be influenced by the stagflationary backdrop.
• The ongoing crude volatility is likely to continue, with upside momentum expected for the coming weeks.
• Critical support for crude oil is now placed at Rs 7,300, with upside momentum potentially pushing prices towards Rs 11,000-11,500 within the next few weeks.