NIFTY23,4060.33%
SENSEX74,3460.41%
BANKNIFTY54,1860.88%
NIFTY IT29,3845.57%
PHARMA24,0870.33%
AUTO26,0930.05%
FMCG48,1241.01%
METAL13,5350.17%
REALTY762.601.39%
ENERGY40,1970.02%
NIFTY23,4060.33%
SENSEX74,3460.41%
BANKNIFTY54,1860.88%
NIFTY IT29,3845.57%
PHARMA24,0870.33%
AUTO26,0930.05%
FMCG48,1241.01%
METAL13,5350.17%
REALTY762.601.39%
ENERGY40,1970.02%

Indian Stock Market Witnesses High Volatility Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The Indian stock market experienced a week of high volatility, marked by a shortened trading week from March 30 to April 2. The market was impacted by a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, a weakening rupee, and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows. As a result, the market ended the fiscal year 2026 (FY26) on a weak note, with the Sensex falling 1,635 points (2.22%) and the Nifty dropping 2.14%, driven by broad-based selling across sectors.

IndexChange (Points)Change (%)
Sensex-1,635-2.22%
Nifty-2.14%

However, the new fiscal year (FY27) began on a strong rebound, supported by global cues and hopes of de-escalation in the Iran-US conflict. The Sensex gained 1.65%, and the Nifty rose 1.56%, led by banking, IT, and auto stocks. However, gains were partially reversed on April 2 as uncertainty resurfaced following US remarks on the conflict, dragging indices lower again.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Despite the volatility, Mehul Kothari, Deputy Vice President of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, believes that the undertone of the Indian stock market is mixed in the short term but increasingly constructive on the broader timeframe. Kothari points out that a decisive breakout by the Nifty 50 index above 23,400 would confirm that a durable bottom is in place.

The Nifty 50 index has been showing signs of strength, with a bounce to 22,700 highlighting strong demand emerging at lower levels. However, confirmation of a durable bottom is still awaited, with the index continuing to trade below the falling trendline resistance near 23,100. A stronger supply zone around 23,400 remains a key hurdle for the index to overcome.

IndexSupport ZoneResistance Zone
Nifty 5022,000-21,70023,400-23,100

Kothari also observes that the quality of the recent bounce and improving momentum structure suggests that the market is gradually preparing for a larger upside move. However, the market may continue to witness volatility and range-bound movement, as sentiment remains fragile and participants are still in the process of exiting.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

On the downside, the 22,000-21,700 zone is expected to act as a strong base formation zone if tested. In essence, while the price action suggests that the worst may be behind us, the market is still in a transition phase – but one where the risk-reward is slowly starting to favour the bulls.

Regarding the Bank Nifty index, Kothari notes that it witnessed an exceptional recovery towards 51,500, indicating strong demand at lower levels. The index is also showing a bullish RSI divergence, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening. However, confirmation is still awaited, with the key breakout level placed around 52,500.

IndexSupport ZoneResistance Zone
Bank Nifty50,000-49,00052,500

As for short-term stock recommendations, Kothari recommends buying the following three stocks under ₹200:

  • UCO Bank: Buy at ₹23, Target ₹25, Stop Loss ₹21.90
  • NBCC: Buy at ₹83, Target ₹95, Stop Loss ₹77
  • PNB: Buy at ₹104, Target ₹114, Stop Loss ₹99

Investor Takeaway

Investors should be cautious due to fragile sentiment and geopolitical risks.

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