Intel Stock Surges 4% Ahead of Q1 Earnings Release, Analysts Forecast Revenue Decline

Intel Stock Surges Ahead of Q1 Earnings Release

Intel Corp. stock experienced a significant surge on Thursday, with a 4.17% increase by 12:29 p.m. EDT, bringing the shares to $68. This upward trend marks a continuation of the company's impressive recovery, which has seen its stock rally roughly 80% this year. Intel's strong performance has propelled it to rank among the S&P 500's top 20 performers, with a 58% climb since late March.

The market's anticipation of Intel's first-quarter financial results is largely centered on the chipmaker's strategy to address supply-chain bottlenecks that have hindered its ability to scale production for surging AI-related enterprise demand. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of 1 cent per share, representing a 92% plunge year-over-year, alongside a decline in revenue to $12.4 billion. Gross margins are anticipated to contract to under 35%, down from 39% in Q1 2025, a trend that has persisted for two years, with the company repeatedly falling short of revenue projections.

Intel's recent investments and partnerships have contributed significantly to its recovery. Last year, the company received an $8.9 billion U.S. government investment, which it subsequently utilized to reclaim a 50% stake in an Irish facility from Apollo Global Management for $14 billion. Intel has also expanded its AI CPU alliance with Google and secured a spot in Elon Musk's Terafab AI project, with Musk confirming that Terafab will utilize Intel's 14A process, marking it as the debut major client for the technology.

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The upcoming Q1 earnings release will be closely watched by stakeholders, who will prioritize 18A process yields—the ratio of functional chips per wafer—as a key metric for future manufacturing success. Analysts have provided their outlook on Intel's performance, with HSBC upgrading its rating to Buy from Hold and raising its price target to $95 from $50. BNP Paribas Exane has upgraded its rating to Neutral from Underperform, with a price target of $60, while RBC Capital has reaffirmed its Sector Perform rating, with a price target of $48.