India's Wheat Output Forecast Revised to 110-120 Million Tonnes for 2025-26 Amid Weather-Related Damage

India's Wheat Production to Fall Short of Estimates Due to Weather Damage

India's wheat production for the 2025-26 crop year is expected to fall short of initial estimates due to unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms in key growing states, according to Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra. The production is likely to range between 110 and 120 million tonnes, a significant drop from the initial estimate of 120.21 million tonnes.

The Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India has projected the wheat output at 110.65 million tonnes, a slight increase from the 109.63 million tonnes produced in 2024-25. This projection takes into account the recent weather damage that affected wheat crops in nine states: Punjab, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

The government has procured 16.4 million tonnes of wheat in the ongoing rabi marketing season (April-March) and has raised its procurement target to 34.5 million tonnes, up from the initial goal of 30 million tonnes. Chopra emphasized that the government plans to release a new open market sale scheme policy for wheat within the next two months and urged millers to play a more active role in wheat procurement.

The government has also permitted exports of 5 million tonnes of wheat and one million tonnes of wheat products in phases. However, shipments have been slow due to price parity issues. As of March 31, the government had a wheat stock of 22.2 million tonnes.