India's Oil Import Resilience Tested Following Expiration of Russian Waiver

India's Oil Refiners Expected to Weather Disruption in Supply

India's oil refiners are poised to withstand disruption in supply after the United States allowed its waiver on Russian crude purchases to expire. Weaker demand and available barrels from the US and the Middle East have mitigated the impact of the waiver's expiration.

Key Factor: China's Virtual Absence from the Market China's virtual absence from the market has been a crucial factor in preserving spot supply, according to traders familiar with the matter. Additionally, India's own demand has cooled due to maintenance that has reduced overall purchases from private refiners.

US and Middle East Offer Prompt-Loading Crude There are offers of prompt-loading crude coming from the US, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Iraq, the traders said. However, total Middle East flows remain a fraction of what they were before the war began. These traders asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak to the media.

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Russian Oil Imports: A Mainstay for India Discounted Russian oil barrels have been a mainstay for the world's third-largest crude importer since 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine triggered a raft of sanctions and cut off the producer's traditional markets. After a brief pullback last year, under pressure from Washington, Indian processors have again been enthusiastically snapping up Moscow shipments.

May Flows Expected to Reach 1.9 Million Barrels a Day According to Kpler data, May flows are expected to come in at close to 1.9 million barrels a day, close to peak levels. This includes a period under the US permit that was allowed to expire over the weekend, despite entreaties from Indian officials and a Brent price that is now more than 50% above pre-war levels.

Russian Crude in Floating Storage Maintenance at Reliance Industries Ltd. and Nayara Energy Ltd. has helped to push up the volumes of Russian crude in floating storage - now at more than 7 million barrels globally, up fivefold from a month ago, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

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India's Crude Oil Reserves India has about 60 days worth of crude oil and liquefied natural gas reserves, alongside 45 days of liquefied petroleum gas stockpiles, the country's oil minister Hardeep Puri has said.

Indian Refiners Expect Another US Extension Indian refiners also anticipate that another US extension to the waiver is possible, even after the expiry, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the issue is sensitive. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in April the US would not renew the waiver, before ultimately issuing a fresh permit days later.

Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Purchases Crude from Multiple Sources Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Chairman Vikas Kaushal told analysts last week that the company has not had any difficulty in getting the crudes which they want. HPCL purchased crude from Russia, as well as Africa, the US, and Venezuela, he added.