India's GDP Growth Slows Amid Revisions to Data Series

India's gross domestic product (GDP) data revisions, published on Friday, indicate that the country may take longer than expected to surpass Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy.

According to the new data series, India's GDP in nominal terms is estimated at Rs 345.47 lakh crore for the fiscal year ending in March, which is lower than the previously forecasted Rs 357.14 lakh crore. Using an average exchange rate for the period, the GDP is estimated at approximately $4 trillion for the fiscal year.

Japan's GDP reached $4.4 trillion in 2025, making it unlikely for India to surpass it this year or possibly next year, according to Sakshi Gupta, an economist at HDFC Bank Ltd. The International Monetary Fund had previously forecast that India would reach the milestone in the current fiscal year.

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The depreciation of India's currency by nearly 5% against the dollar last year and the strengthening of the yen have contributed to the slower economic growth. Despite this, India's economy is expanding at a rate of over 7%, driven by its mostly young population of 1.4 billion. In contrast, Japan's economy is expected to grow at a modest 1% in the current fiscal year, with a shrinking population.

Surpassing Japan would be more a reflection of scale than prosperity for India, given its per capita income of just above $3,000, which is a fraction of Japan's estimated $36,390 for 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund.