India's Food Exports to the Gulf Region Face Uncertainty Amid Ongoing Conflict

India's Food Exports at Risk Amid West Asian Conflict

Key Findings:

• India's food exports, particularly rice, spices, fruits, and meat products, are vulnerable to disruptions in trade routes and demand due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
• The Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime corridor, is a critical shipping route for Indian exports to the Gulf region.

Trade Data Analysis:

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• India exported rice worth $11.05 billion globally in 2024, with $4.08 billion (37%) shipped to Hormuz corridor nations, including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
• Iran imported $698 million worth of Indian rice, while Iraq purchased over $929 million.
• Spices, such as cardamom, are heavily dependent on the region, with $147 million (76%) of global exports destined for Hormuz economies.
• Fruit exports, including bananas, also show similar concentration, with $291 million (82%) of global exports heading to Gulf markets.
• Livestock products, such as sheep meat, are even more dependent on the region, with over 99% of exports shipped to Hormuz corridor countries.

Processed Foods and Beverages at Risk:

• India's processed food industry could feel the impact, with around one-fifth of exports of jams and jellies concentrated in the region.
• The Gulf accounts for about 40% of India's pasta exports worth $40 million, while potato chips exports show a similar share.
• Roughly one-seventh of India's frozen potato products are also shipped to Middle Eastern markets.

Alcohol Exports:

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• India's whisky exports worth $70 million in 2024 showed a strong regional concentration, with nearly two-fifths of exports destined for West Asia.
• The region also absorbed about half of India's rum exports worth $20 million, 57% of vodka shipments, and two-thirds of India's beer exports worth $25 million.

Conclusion:

• India's total export exposure to the region was 14%, but for agricultural goods and processed food, the share of West Asia was higher at 20%.
• Disruptions in shipping lanes or logistics, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could significantly affect export flows, and prolonged geopolitical tensions could weaken demand in Gulf economies.