India's Exports May Find Temporary Reprieve from Ceasefire, But Recovery Remains Tied to Gulf Region Stability

India's Exports Set to Benefit from Iran-US Ceasefire

India's exports to the Gulf region are expected to stabilise and recover after weeks of disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The April 8 Iran-US ceasefire is likely to benefit nearly 14 percent of India's exports, with shipments through the key shipping route gradually resuming.

Exporters in sectors such as jewellery, agriculture, and industrial goods are expected to benefit the most from the ceasefire, given their significant exposure to the region. The pace of recovery will depend on how quickly Gulf economies restore production and demand. Elevated logistics costs, including higher insurance premiums and transit charges through the Strait, may continue to delay a return to pre-crisis levels despite the ceasefire.

Data shows that several export categories are highly dependent on the region. Refined copper wire exports saw their share rise from 91.4 percent in 2024 to 93.8 percent in 2025, while silk fabrics increased from 66.7 percent to 81.7 percent. Similarly, fresh eggs (70.3 percent to 80.8 percent) and tankers (25.2 percent to 62.7 percent) recorded sharp increases in regional share.

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In value terms, key export segments also posted strong growth. Articles of precious metal rose from $5.46 billion in 2024 to $7.09 million in 2025, while smartphone exports increased from $2.78 billion to $4.07 million.

Other categories, such as bananas and cardamom, saw a decline in regional share despite rising values. Bananas fell from 83 percent to 78 percent, while cardamom declined from 76 percent to 73 percent.

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The Gulf region has also emerged as a key alternative market for Indian exporters amid shifting global trade dynamics. Following US tariff-related disruptions, exports in select categories to the US dropped from $7 billion between September and December 2024 to $2.1 billion in 2025. Over the same period, shipments to Gulf countries nearly doubled from $854 million to $1.7 billion as exporters redirected trade flows.

Overall, more than a third of India's export categories witnessed over 30 percent increase in growth, while 55 percent of categories witnessed an increase in share. India exported goods across 4,005 categories to nations linked with the Strait of Hormuz.

The ceasefire could provide near-term relief to a significant share of India's exports, but a sustained recovery will depend on stabilising logistics costs and demand conditions in the Gulf region.