Indian Stocks Forecast: Market Outlook for April 30
Indian Stock Market Expected to Open Lower on Thursday Amid Global Weakness
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday, tracking weak global market cues amid rising crude oil prices and a hawkish US Federal Reserve policy. According to trends on Gift Nifty, the Indian benchmark index is expected to start the day on a negative note, trading around the 24,165 level, a discount of nearly 86 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above the 24,100 level. The Sensex jumped 609.45 points, or 0.79%, to close at 77,496.36, while the Nifty 50 settled 181.95 points, or 0.76%, higher at 24,177.65.
Sensex and Nifty 50 Predictions
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Analysts at Kotak Securities believe that the short-term outlook of the market remains positive, but a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after Sensex surpasses 77,800 or the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Once this level is crossed, the index could retest the level of 78,100, followed by a potential upside to the 78,500 - 78,700 range.
On the downside, if Sensex falls below 77,200, market sentiment could turn negative, and below this level, the index could slip to the 76,500 - 76,300 range.
Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Predictions
In the derivatives segment, significant put writing at the 24,000 strike and aggressive call writing at the 24,300 strike indicate expectations of a range-bound market in the near term. According to HDFC Securities, the Nifty 50 index formed a small bullish candle with a sizable, long upper shadow, signaling intraday volatility and selling pressure at higher levels as the index consolidates around the 20 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
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Technical Analysis
| Stock Index | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | Consolidating around 20 days EMA, with potential resistance at 24,400 - 24,500 and support at 24,000 levels |
| Bank Nifty | Hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, with potential resistance at 55,900 - 56,000 and support at 55,000 - 54,900 levels |
According to technical analysts, the Nifty 50 index has a reasonable positive candle on the daily chart with a long upper shadow, while the Bank Nifty index has formed a small body bearish candle with a noticeable upper wick and a small lower wick, highlighting its continued inability to hold higher levels.
Market Sentiment
The India VIX slipped to 17.44, indicating that immediate panic is subsiding; however, elevated oil prices are keeping "underlying anxiety" alive in the market. Analysts advise a cautious trading approach in the near term due to the range-bound market expectations.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
| Stock Index | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,850 - 24,000 | 24,400 - 24,500 |
| Bank Nifty | 55,000 - 54,900 | 55,900 - 56,000 |
Investor Takeaway
Expect a negative start for the Indian benchmark index, but a short-term positive trend remains.
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