India Increases Russian Oil Imports Amid US Waiver

Indian Refiners Ramp Up Russian Crude Purchases Amid Escalating Iran War

33 million barrels of Russian crude are expected to reach India this month, following a recent US waiver. Indian refiners have already purchased 10 million barrels, with another 23 million expected to load in the remainder of the month, according to Kpler AIS projection data.

The waiver, issued by the US Treasury Department on March 6, allows Indian refiners to receive Russian crude oil shipments that were already in transit. This decision aims to address disruptions in global supply chains triggered by the escalating West Asia conflict.

Russia's crude oil is now trading at a premium of around $5 over the benchmark Brent crude, a significant shift from the discount of $8-10 per barrel prior to the conflict. Brent crude was hovering around $107 a barrel on March 9, after zooming past $110 earlier in the day.

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Indian refiners had reduced their appetite for Russian oil after the US sanctioned major oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. However, the US waiver broadens India's access to both sanctioned grades from these companies and non-sanctioned Russian crude, allowing Indian refiners to lift more oil from Russia.

130 million barrels of Russian crude are currently idling at sea, with significant volumes floating across the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Suez Canal, and Singapore, which can be redirected to Indian ports if final commercial terms are finalized.

The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, is expected to lead to a decline in crude imports from Gulf countries. India's oil imports from Iraq have already decreased to 6.8 million barrels in March, down from 27.25 million barrels in February.

Key Figures:

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• 33 million barrels: Expected Russian crude to reach India this month
• 10 million: Russian crude already purchased by Indian refiners
• 23 million: Russian crude expected to load in the remainder of the month
• $107 a barrel: Brent crude price on March 9
• $5: Premium of Russian crude over benchmark Brent crude
• 130 million barrels: Russian crude idling at sea
• 40-50%: Percentage of India's crude imports that transit through the Strait of Hormuz