India Aims for Completion of Digital Census and Release of First Population Estimates by End of FY 2026-27

India's Next Census: A Digital Shift and Critical Data Release

India is on track to complete its next census by February 2027, with initial population estimates expected to be released by the end of the following month. This timeline aligns with past census cycles, where provisional data has typically been released soon after enumeration. In 2011, population enumeration was conducted in February, with provisional figures released in March and final numbers published in May 2013. The upcoming Census 2027 will be conducted in two phases: house listing in 2026 and population enumeration in early 2027, with March 1, 2027, as the reference date for most of the country.

Regional Variations

Due to geographical challenges, snow-bound regions such as Ladakh and parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand will use October 1, 2026, as the reference date. This digital census is expected to enable quicker processing compared with previous exercises, potentially leading to reduced timelines.

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Population Projections

India's population is projected to reach 143.4 crore by 2027. However, historical data indicates that projections have consistently underestimated actual population levels. Census data shows that projections fell short by 1.7 percent in 1981, around 1.1-1.6 percent in 1991 and 2001, and 1.6 percent in 2011, when India's population reached 121.1 crore compared with a projection of 119.3 crore.

The average difference between projections and actual population over the past four decades is approximately 1.5 percent. If this historical trend persists, India's population in 2027 could exceed the projected 143.4 crore.

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Fertility Trends

Government projections had estimated the total fertility rate (TFR) at 2.13 during 2016-2020, easing to 1.94 from 2021 onwards. Actual fertility averaged 2.16 during 2016-2020—above projections—and only fell slightly below estimates in 2023 at 1.9 versus a projected 1.94. This supports the possibility of India's population exceeding the projected 143.4 crore.

Cost of the Census Exercise

The upcoming census is set to be the most expensive on a per capita basis, with a total cost of Rs 11,718.24 crore, translating to Rs 82 per person. This compares with Rs 18 per capita in 2011 and Rs 64 estimated for the postponed 2021 census. Even after adjusting the 2011 figure to Rs 58.7 per capita by including the Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC), the upcoming exercise remains about 40 percent more expensive per person.