Hindustan Copper Seen Reaching Rs 650, According to Anand Rathi Research

Hindustan Copper Limited (HCP) Research Report

Key Highlights:

• HCP sources most chemicals domestically for captive use, limiting direct exposure to global trade flows.
• The primary impact of global geo-political disruptions reflects in higher freight cost, notably from rise in crude prices.
• Consumption of power, fuel, and water accounts for approximately 7% of revenue, with any increase in fuel cost having a direct impact on operating margin.

Growth Prospects:

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• HCP was granted a Coal Linkage (CL) in Jan-26 for the Baghwari-Khirkhori block (~299.34 Ha), which could aid volume expansion beyond FY31e.
• The average grade at the block is pegged in the range of 0.5-1.5% Cu.
• Mining operations at Kendadih mine began in Jan-26, while output at Kolihan mine is likely to pick up from Q4FY26-Q1FY27.

Outlook:

• We have trimmed our EBITDA estimate by 8.7/5.2/5% for FY26/27/28e due to slightly delayed ramp-up in mining volume and potential headwinds from higher freight cost linked to crude price movements.
• We maintain a BUY rating on HCP with a DCF-based TP of Rs650, considering near-term macro headwinds.