Goldman Sachs Cuts Second-Quarter 2026 Oil Price Projections
Goldman Sachs Trims Oil Price Forecasts Amid Ceasefire Hopes
Goldman Sachs has adjusted its second quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude oil prices, trimming them to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively. This decision comes after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
The bank had previously forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively. The reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and increasing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have led Goldman to nudge down its Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI.
Brent crude oil prices have seen a decline of over 11% so far this week, driven by hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. However, prices rose on Thursday due to concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume, amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and the continued restriction of the crucial strait.
Goldman Sachs has kept its third-quarter forecast unchanged at $82 for Brent and $77 for WTI, and for the fourth quarter at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI. The bank has highlighted that risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses.
In a severe case where the ceasefire does not hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter, according to Goldman.
The bank has also lowered its second-quarter European benchmark TTF gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh) from 70 EUR/MWh, assuming gradual normalisation of LNG flows through Hormuz from mid-April. However, if LNG flows are significantly delayed or production infrastructure is damaged, prices will likely exceed 75 EUR/MWh.
| Forecast | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (Q2) | $99 | $90 | -9% |
| WTI (Q2) | $91 | $87 | -4% |
| Brent (Q3) | $82 | $82 | 0% |
| WTI (Q3) | $77 | $77 | 0% |
| Brent (Q4) | $80 | $80 | 0% |
| WTI (Q4) | $75 | $75 | 0% |
| TTF Gas Price (Q2) | 70 EUR/MWh | 50 EUR/MWh | -29% |
| TTF Gas Price (Scenario) | 75 EUR/MWh | 75 EUR/MWh | 0% |
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Investor Takeaway
Oil prices may fluctuate in the short term due to geopolitical tensions.
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