Gold Prices See 60% Gain Since Last Akshaya Tritiya: Will the Trend Continue in the Next Year?

Gold Prices Surge 60% Ahead of Akshaya Tritiya Festival

India's gold market has seen a significant increase in prices, with the yellow metal surging 60% since the last Akshaya Tritiya festival in April 2025. This sharp rise has added to investors' wealth, making the festival a lucrative event for gold buyers. Historically, Akshaya Tritiya has proven to be a profitable time for investors, with gold providing solid returns for the ninth consecutive year.

The current price of gold in the Indian spot market is around ₹150,000, which is down 16% or ₹30,000 from recent highs. This decline is attributed to investors booking profits following the sharp rally and inflation concerns amid rising crude oil prices. However, analysts expect gold price momentum to continue, albeit at a slower pace, against the backdrop of a massive rise in the last few years.

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Akshaya Tritiya, the second-biggest gold-buying festival in India after Dhanteras, is considered auspicious when buying gold. Demand trends ahead of this year's festival have remained firm, despite elevated prices limiting aggressive buying from retail consumers. According to Kaveri More, Commodity Technical Research at Choice Broking, jewellers usually make healthy purchases ahead of the festival, but this year their buying is negligible.

Globally, China's gold premiums have narrowed as demand softened, while the country's central bank continued its gold purchases for the 17th straight month, reflecting sustained confidence in bullion. Analysts believe that amid central bank buying and sustained geopolitical stress, gold makes for a lucrative asset to hold in one's portfolio.

Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, suggests that gold should be viewed less as a return-chasing trade and more as a portfolio stabiliser. He cautions that the "large part of the easy upside may already be behind us" and advises buying in a staggered manner, avoiding lump-sum and aggressive purchases. More of Choice Wealth echoed similar views, stating that a staggered buying on dips could be the smarter strategy for those looking to invest for the next year with healthy returns.

From a technical perspective, if gold has seen a breakout, and if momentum sustains, prices may head towards ₹155,000, followed by ₹170,000, with a possible retest of ₹181,000 in the coming months. However, key downside support is seen at ₹136,200, with a stronger base near ₹127,500.

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