Gold Prices Reach 50% Year-Over-Year High Ahead of Akshaya Tritiya: Market Analysis and Investment Strategies

Gold Prices Surge by Over 50% in a Year, Leaving Investors Surprised and Intrigued

Gold has once again proven why it is called a "safe haven" asset. Since the last Akshaya Tritiya, the price of the precious metal has surged by more than 50%, leaving investors both surprised and intrigued. The yellow metal's price has witnessed a phenomenal rally over the last 12 months, rising by more than 50% from ₹99,500 per 10 grams on 30 April 2025, i.e., the last Akshaya Tritiya, to ₹1,57,255 for 10 grams of 24K gold in Delhi as of 16 April 2026.

Amid volatility in global markets, geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns, gold has steadily strengthened its position as a preferred investment choice. This makes it essential for investors to have a clear understanding of where gold prices will be in a year, so they can make prudent investment decisions.

Experts' Take on Current Prices, Future Outlook, and Investment Implications

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According to Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst-Commodities, Axis Securities, gold prices have surged over 50% since last Akshaya Tritiya due to strong global cues and sustained investor interest. The momentum has been particularly strong in recent years, with gains of around 40% and 47% in dollar terms. In 2026, Comex gold touched a record high of $5,598 before correcting to $4,098 due to profit booking and ETF outflows. Rising crude oil prices—from $60 to $115 per barrel—amid geopolitical tensions further fueled inflation concerns. Despite volatility, gold remains resilient, and we expect prices to retest $5,300–$5,500 levels globally and ₹1,70,000–₹1,85,000 domestically over the next year.

Hardaman Singh Seth, Head Business - ETF Business, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India), elucidated the broader trends shaping investor behavior. While globally, the situation is yet very fluid, typically silver is more volatile given its smaller market size and relatively higher participation from derivatives and speculative flows. Near term, gold seems attractive from a risk-reward point of view, amid geopolitical uncertainty, while silver could see sharper swings depending on risk sentiment, speculative flows, and industrial demand signals.

Shifting ETF v Physical Preference

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The popularity of ETFs as a medium to buy gold is going up every year. Since the first launch of Gold ETF in 2007, the AUM of this category has jumped to ₹1,71,468 crore. In fact, for the FY ended 2026, Gold ETFs (including Fund of Fund) recorded a large net inflow of around ₹70,000 crore. Investors have realised that buying gold through ETFs is a low-cost, hassle-free, and convenient process which allows them to buy and sell gold in very small quantities without any fear of quality or purity of the underlying metal.

5 Reasons Behind the Surge in Gold Prices

1. Heightened Geopolitical Tensions: The US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars have increased demand for gold as a safe haven, leading to significant volatility in global equity markets and increased gold allocation across portfolios.
2. Dramatic Rise in Oil Prices: Disruptions to oil and gas facilities in primary oil-producing nations such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, among others, have resulted in a dramatic rise in oil prices, fueling inflation fears and the fear of the war spreading across the Middle East.
3. Fear of Ongoing Disruptions: Fear of ongoing disruptions to energy infrastructure, dollar weakness, and oil supply concerns drove institutional buying and strong inflows into gold ETFs, primarily to offset equity market volatility and preserve wealth in this challenging time.
4. Weakness in Global Currencies: Weakness in global currencies, especially the dollar, has boosted gold's appeal. Furthermore, the INR's weakness relative to the dollar has led to significant FII selling and increased investments in gold and silver ETFs.
5. Long-term Diversification: These developments have highlighted the significance of long-term diversification of wealth into gold and silver, as well as their role as a hedge against inflation, wars, and other geopolitical risks.

What Should Investors Do?

According to experts, it is prudent to view gold as a long-term portfolio stabiliser. Investments in this asset class should not be based on short-term trading opportunities. Given the recent surge and continuous volatility in prices, a composed and disciplined approach is fundamental in the current environment. Systematic investments in gold ETFs or phased accumulation during market downturns can help reduce average costs, while retaining the potential for long-term upside. Silver, on the other hand, is also attractive; still, it may witness sharper volatility due to market swings and its industrial demand cycle.