Gold Price Surges on MCX Amid Dollar Weakness and Improved US-Iran Conflict Prospects

Gold Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes

Gold prices rose in the domestic futures market on Monday morning as the US dollar declined following a drop in crude oil prices. The optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal contributed to the surge in gold prices.

In the MCX gold futures market, gold prices climbed by 0.40% to ₹1,59,315 per 10 grams, while MCX silver July futures were 1.44% up at ₹2,75,750 per kg around 9:05 am. The US dollar index declined by nearly 0.30%, making greenback-denominated bullion cheaper for buyers in other currencies.

The decline in the US dollar index was triggered by a fall in crude oil prices, with the benchmark Brent Crude trading below $98 per barrel. Reports suggested that a peace deal between the US and Iran could be finalised in the near future, with US President Donald Trump announcing significant progress in a peace deal with Iran on Saturday.

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The agreement is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway in the Middle East. However, key details regarding Iran's nuclear stockpile and the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.

The weaker US dollar and softer Treasury yields further supported bullion prices, while expectations that any agreement could ease tensions around the Strait of Hormuz added to the recovery sentiment. Traders remained cautious, however, after US President Donald Trump stated there was no urgency to finalise the deal, keeping overall market volatility elevated.

According to Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, the broader trend in gold prices remains bullish as prices continue to hold above all key EMAs on the daily chart, indicating underlying buying strength.

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Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research pointed out that gold has support at $4,500 and $4,467, while resistance is at $4,555 and $4,600 per troy ounce. Silver has support at $74.20 and $72, while resistance is at $78.80 and $80.40 per troy ounce.

Jain suggested buying gold in the range of ₹1,58,500 to ₹1,57,700 with a stop loss below ₹1,56,650 for the target of ₹1,59,350 and ₹1,60,300. He also recommended maintaining a stop loss below ₹2,63,000 for the target of ₹2,81,000 and ₹2,85,000 for those holding long positions in silver.