Gold Price Sees Recovery on MCX as US-Iran Tensions Escalate

Gold Prices Rebound on Value Buying Amid US Federal Reserve Decision

On Thursday, April 30, gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rebounded from a one-month low, driven by value buying after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. MCX gold June futures rose 1.57% to ₹1,51,350 per 10 grams, as of around 2:40 pm.

The international gold market also witnessed a rebound, with spot gold rising 1% to $4,588.09 per ounce. US gold futures for June delivery gained 0.4% to $4,578.10. Despite the uptick, gold was headed for a second consecutive monthly decline due to persistently high oil prices, which fueled worries about inflation and the likelihood of interest rates staying elevated for longer.

The decision by the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% for the third straight policy meeting highlighted rising inflation risks driven by higher energy prices amid the West Asian conflict. The Federal Reserve's decision had little impact on market sentiment, with US equities, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, ending nearly flat on Wednesday.

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The rebound in gold prices was supported by buying on dips and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, expectations of elevated interest rates are capping significant gains, according to Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk. Carsten Menke, Head Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, noted that the established short-term pattern holds, with external factors such as the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and inflation determining the path of US monetary policy.

Renisha Chainani, Head, Research at Augmont, believes that Gold held near $4,550, at one-month lows, as rising energy costs fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further central bank tightening. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that MCX Gold opened with a slight gap up and is trading near the ₹1,49,500 zone, attempting a modest recovery after a sharp decline from recent highs near ₹1,51,500.

The near-term bias remains bearish-to-cautious, weighed down by dollar demand and evolving geopolitical developments. Immediate resistance stands at ₹1,50,000, and a sustained move above this level could ease near-term bearish pressure toward the ₹1,51,000–₹1,51,500 zone. On the downside, a break below ₹1,49,000 could trigger extended weakness toward ₹1,48,600–₹1,48,000, with ₹1,47,000 acting as a deeper floor.

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