Gold Price May Approach $5,000 Per Ounce in Near Future

Gold Prices Remain Volatile Amid Ongoing US-Iran Tensions

Gold prices have continued to fluctuate in response to the escalating US-Iran conflict, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the war. Since the onset of tensions in the Middle East, gold prices have fallen over 16%.

On March 2, 2026, gold surged to $5,400-per-ounce mark, driven by escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices tumbled sharply to around $4,099 within the same month, marking a steep correction of roughly 24% in just a few weeks. Since then, gold has recovered, rebounding to the $4,600 range.

As of Wednesday, spot gold declined 0.4% to $4,574.26 per ounce, after touching its lowest level since April 2 in the previous session. Meanwhile, US gold futures for June delivery also slipped 0.4% to $4,587.70. Back home, MCX gold futures for June were marginally higher by 0.03% at ₹1,50,077 per 10 grams in the early morning session on Wednesday.

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The recent decline in gold prices can be attributed to rising oil prices, which have stoked inflation concerns among investors. Brent crude climbed above $112 per barrel following reports that the United States plans to extend its blockade of Iranian ports. Efforts to resolve the conflict appear stalled, with US President Donald Trump expressing dissatisfaction with Tehran's latest proposal.

Trump also stated on Tuesday that Iran is keen for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened quickly. However, he remains unhappy with Iran's recent proposals, citing their failure to address issues related to its nuclear program. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran peace negotiations have heightened inflation concerns, leading investors to factor in the likelihood that central banks may keep interest rates higher for an extended period or even tighten further, weighing on non-yielding assets like bullion.

Comparison of Gold Prices

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Global brokerage firm Goldman Sachs still expects gold prices to reach $5,400 by the year-end as central bank diversification continues. However, gold remains vulnerable to further liquidation should Hormuz disruptions persist and bond or equities correct further. On the other hand, Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities, believes that the next strong up-move to play out towards a fresh all-time high of $6,000.

However, this $5,000 is roughly a 12-month story, not a near-term move. So, it is very much achievable — the runway only opens up once the oil and geopolitical dust settles. On the other hand, Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments Limited, said that gold may not immediately surge to $5,000, as ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

The long-term outlook for gold remains firmly bullish, supported by strong fundamentals such as central bank demand, inflationary pressures, and limited supply growth. While short-term volatility is inevitable, gold's role as a safe-haven asset ensures that it will remain a cornerstone of wealth preservation, with potential for significant upside once global uncertainties ease.