Global Tariff Shake-up: Winners and Losers from Trump's 15% Levy

US Global Tariff Structure Set to Reshape Trade Flows

Key Findings:

• US President Donald Trump's 15% uniform global tariff on all imports, effective February 24, is expected to have a significant impact on global trade flows.
• Brazil and China are set to benefit the most from the new tariff structure, with Brazil experiencing a 13.6 percentage point reduction in average tariff rates and China seeing a 7.1 percentage point reduction.

Impact on US Allies:

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• UK: Average tariff rate to rise by 2.1 percentage points, with a net increase in import duties.
• European Union: Overall 0.8 percentage point increase in average tariff rate, with Italy and France emerging as the most exposed.
• Japan: Significant hit expected, with exports concentrated in sectors that remain covered by separate tariffs.

Beneficiaries of the New Tariff Structure:

• Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia are set to benefit disproportionately, with export mix dominated by labour-intensive products such as clothing, furniture, toys, and plastics.
• Asian manufacturing hubs are expected to gain from the levelling of tariffs, enhancing price competitiveness in the US market.

Market Implications:

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• The uniform tariff structure could accelerate the ongoing shift in global supply chains, strengthening Asia's position in consumer goods manufacturing, while weakening Europe's and Japan's foothold in industrial exports.
• Potential for fresh trade negotiations in the wake of the new tariff structure.