Global Markets to Watch: Key Events and Analyst Insights

Equity Market Trends to be Shaped by US-Iran Situation, Crude Oil Prices, and RBI Interest Rate Decision

The upcoming week promises to be event-heavy for the equity market, with analysts predicting that developments around the US-Iran situation, crude oil prices, and the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision will play a crucial role in determining the market trend.

Besides macroeconomic data announcements, trading activity of foreign investors, and the rupee-dollar trend, these factors will act as key drivers for equities, according to market experts. The RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday is expected to be a major event of the week, providing insights into the central bank's stance on inflation, liquidity, and interest rates.

The week will begin with the release of the final HSBC Manufacturing PMI reading for May on Monday, followed by the Services PMI and Composite PMI data on Wednesday. These indicators will provide important insights into demand trends, business activity, and growth resilience across sectors.

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Additionally, investors will monitor India's GDP growth data and foreign exchange reserves figures for further clarity on economic momentum and external sector stability.

Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex dropped 639.61 points, or 0.84 per cent, and the NSE Nifty declined 171.55 points, or 0.72 per cent.

Market experts predict that markets will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments this week, with investor attention firmly focused on the evolving US-Iran negotiations, broader diplomatic developments in the Middle East, and the trajectory of crude oil prices.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Beyond geopolitics, investors are also expected to closely monitor rupee movement, institutional flow dynamics, global equity market trends, and key macroeconomic indicators for further direction.

The RBI's monetary policy decision and India's GDP data release will be the two interlocking catalysts that will determine the near-term directional call for Indian equities, according to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited. India PMI and IIP data will provide the first meaningful read on early Q1FY27 industrial momentum.