Global Markets Head into April 1 with Uncertainty: Key Factors to Watch Amid Rising Tensions with Iran

Market Update: Nifty 50 Witnesses Second Straight Session of Decline Amid Uncertainty

The Nifty 50 index witnessed a strong dominance of bears, falling over 2 percent for the second straight session on March 30, amidst high volumes. The uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz persisted amid the intensified West Asia war, while FII outflows have remained unstoppable since February 26.

Market Analysis

Technically, the lower high–lower low formation and downward-sloping moving averages signal healthy bearish momentum. This has been a particularly painful month for the markets. After being oversold and with bears showing some signs of fatigue, the index may see a rebound towards 22,500–22,700. However, sustainability remains key going forward. As the index is close to a rising support trendline, a decisive break could trigger a fall towards 22,000–21,700, according to experts.

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Key Levels for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty

The Nifty 50 formed a long red candle with an upper shadow on the daily timeframe after a gap-down opening, signalling significant selling pressure. The lower top–lower bottom formation remains intact, while the index is 10.5 percent below its 200-day EMA. The RSI has remained below 40 since the start of March, while the MACD is sustained well below the signal and zero lines, with weakness in the histogram. All this indicates continued bearish bias.

The Bank Nifty formed a long red candle, continuing the lower high–lower low structure, and traded nearly 12 percent below its 200-day EMA, with all moving averages sloping downward. The index dropped below the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level (of the rally from the March 2025 low to the January 2026 high). The RSI sustained below 40 throughout March, and the MACD stayed below the reference and zero lines, with a weakening histogram. All this indicates sustained bearish momentum.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Options Data

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike for the Nifty 50, while the 51,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest for the Bank Nifty. These levels can act as key resistance levels for the respective indices in the short term.

Funds Flow and Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) fell to 0.92 on March 30, compared to a 0.94 in the previous session. The increasing PCR generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. However, the current PCR suggests a bearish mood in the market.

India VIX

The India VIX spiked further to the 27.89 zone, the highest closing level in the last four years, up 4.05 percent from the previous session. This signals heightened risk for bulls, and it needs to fall sharply below the 18 zone for bulls to regain comfort.

Market Trends

A long build-up was seen in 1 stock, while 187 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding. 9 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions. 13 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit. No stocks were added to, retained in, or removed from the F&O ban list on March 30.