Global Markets Experience Broad Gains, Driven Primarily by Select Stocks

Global Market Surge Masks Concentrated Performance

Despite a year of impressive gains for global markets, a closer examination of the data reveals a more nuanced story than the headline numbers suggest. An analysis of Bloomberg data by Moneycontrol shows that the gains across the world's major indices have largely been driven by a small number of stocks, raising questions about the true breadth of the global bull run.

The S&P 500 index, a benchmark of US stock market performance, soared 29 percent over the past year, adding $15 trillion in market capitalisation. However, beneath this impressive headline number, just six stocks - Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple, Broadcom, and Micron Technology - contributed nearly 55 percent of that entire market cap addition. The next 13 stocks accounted for another 25 percent, while 291 stocks added less than 1 percent each and 192 stocks actually delivered negative returns.

The concentration was even sharper on the Nasdaq Composite, which surged 40 percent over the same period, adding nearly $17 trillion in market cap across its 3,357 listed stocks. A mere seven stocks were responsible for 60 percent of that addition, with the next 10 contributing another 20 percent. Meanwhile, 1,726 stocks added less than 1 percent to the total, and the remaining stocks dragged the index with negative market cap contributions.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average, a tighter index of 30 blue-chip stocks, posted a 22 percent gain with a $5.3 trillion rise in market cap - and here the concentration was most extreme, with just three stocks accounting for nearly 80 percent of the total addition.

Experts warn that the narrow rally has created a false sense of security for investors. Unlike a broad-based rally that lifts most sectors and stocks, the current surge has largely benefited a select group of companies, making indices more vulnerable to sharp corrections if these heavyweights begin to weaken.

Across the Pacific, Japan's Nikkei 225 delivered a stunning 58 percent rally in dollar terms, adding $1.49 trillion in market cap. Of that, 14 stocks - including Kioxia Holdings, SoftBank Group, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Murata Manufacturing, Fast Retailing, and Sumitomo Mitsui among others - contributed 65 percent of the gains, while 120 stocks added less than 1 percent and 75 stocks closed the year in the red.

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China's CSI 300 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng returned 34 percent and 10 percent respectively in dollar terms. On the CSI 300, just eight stocks - Zhongji Innolight, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Contemporary Amperex Technology, PetroChina, Cambricon Technologies, Eoptolink Technology, China Construction Bank, and Hygon Information Technology - drove 40 percent of the total market cap addition, while on the Hang Seng, a concentrated group of eight stocks contributed a remarkable 95 percent of the index's entire gain.

Britain's FTSE 100, which rose 20 percent in dollar terms, told a similar tale with just eight stocks accounting for 80 percent of the market cap addition.

The most dramatic examples came from Asia's semiconductor-heavy markets. Taiwan's Taiex, home to 1,056 listed stocks, surged 92 percent over the past year with a single stock - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company - alone accounting for 50 percent of the total market cap added. South Korea's Kospi was equally top-heavy, posting a 169 percent rally with just two stocks - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - contributing over 57 percent of the total market cap gain.

According to experts, the rally in global markets was essentially a rally in AI-related stocks. With the war now moving toward a resolution, capital is beginning to rotate into the next opportunity. The next rolling bubble, in their view, could well be the space sector, particularly with the SpaceX IPO on the horizon.

Back home, Indian markets endured a turbulent year with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty losing 13 percent and 15 percent respectively in dollar terms, with six stocks - TCS, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Infosys, ICICI Bank, and ITC - contributing nearly 75 percent of the total market cap decline. The fall was due to persistent foreign institutional investor outflows, global trade tensions, stretched valuations, and subdued corporate earnings. The absence of AI-related stocks among India's index heavyweights further kept the market on the sidelines of the global technology-driven rally. More recently, the conflict involving Iran and Israel pushed crude oil prices higher, stoking inflation concerns and adding to fiscal worries that further dampened investor confidence.