Gold Prices Remain Consolidated Amid Ongoing US/Israel-Iran Conflict

As of March 13, 2026, gold prices have traded in a range of $5,277 per ounce highs to $5,054 per ounce lows on international markets. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices have ranged between Rs 1,69,880 per 10 grams highs on February 27 and Rs 1,59,350 per 10 grams lows as of March 13.

Geopolitical Risk Premium and Oil Prices

The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated to neighboring countries, creating a geopolitical risk premium for commodities and disrupting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, gold prices have remained in a consolidation phase, trading in the $300-per-ounce range. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in risk premiums in oil prices, with WTI crude rising from lows of $60 a barrel to highs of $110 a barrel.

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Inflationary Risk and Stronger Dollar

The strengthening of the dollar and the higher inflationary environment have hindered gold prices from rising, despite the geopolitical risks. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar move inversely to gold prices, resulting in gold losing momentum and consolidating.

Market Outlook

Gold is trading near $5,165 per ounce, having surged more than 80 percent over the past year. Three possible scenarios can be panned out in the current environment:

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• Bullish Scenario: A global slowdown and further geopolitical escalation can result in gold prices moving higher by around 15-20 percent from current levels in 2026.
• Mild Bullish: A slowdown in US growth and moderate Fed rate cuts can lead to a 5-15 percent rise in gold prices.
• Bearish: Strong US growth, sticky inflation, and high interest rates can result in a correction of 5-20 percent in gold prices.