Geopolitical Risks, China Policy, US Jobs Data to Influence Commodity Markets Next Week

Market Update: Week Ended February 27, 2026

US Dollar and Interest Rates The US dollar held above 97.5 as resilient data reinforced expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected, while US consumer confidence rose to 91.2 in February, indicating economic strength. Core PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts.

Market pricing has pushed expectations for the first rate cut toward July, reflecting mixed commentary from Fed officials and a relatively hawkish tone in the January FOMC minutes.

Equity Market Major US equity benchmarks closed the week and month lower amid concerns over AI disruption and its potential broader impact on jobs and the economy, as well as geopolitical tensions and tariffs. Spot gold and silver surged to one-month highs of $5,277 per ounce and $94.17 per ounce, respectively, on Friday, closing the week up 4% and 11%.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Commodities Spot gold and silver surged on Friday, with gold notching a seventh straight monthly gain (8.5%) and silver posting a tenth (11%). MCX Gold futures are showing signs of steady recovery after recent consolidation, with prices holding above the 20 EMA and attempting to stabilize near the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement zone around Rs 1,61,690 per 10 gram.

Base Metals Base metals ended the week mostly higher, with copper emerging as the standout performer, rising nearly 3% for a second consecutive weekly gain. The rise reflects growing optimism around China's policy support after top leadership signaled more proactive fiscal measures and a moderately loose monetary stance to stimulate domestic demand.

Oil Prices WTI crude oil climbed to $67.8 per barrel, its highest level since August 2025, buoyed by the rising likelihood of a strike on Iran as key sticking points remain unresolved in US-Iran nuclear talks. Oil prices were volatile throughout the week, briefly slipping below $64 per barrel amid the resumption of talks and expectations that OPEC+ may increase output by 137,000 bpd in April.

Looking Ahead Geopolitics will remain the dominant theme as tensions escalate over the weekend following US-Israel strikes across Iran. Markets are also eyeing China's annual "Two Sessions" meetings from March 4–11, where the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to be unveiled.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline