Four Nifty Stocks Projected for Over 50% YoY Profit Growth in Q4

Middle East Crisis to Impact India Inc's Q4 Earnings

India Inc's Q4 earnings performance is expected to show a softer growth due to the impact of the Middle East crisis, according to an analysis by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL). The domestic brokerage firm's latest strategy report estimates a 10% year-on-year (YoY) growth for the MOSL universe earnings, lower than the 18% and 15% YoY growth recorded in Q3 and Q2 of the financial year 2025-26 (FY26). This is a decrease from the earlier estimated 14% rise in bottomline.

The impact on large-caps is expected to be more pronounced. For the Nifty 50 pack of stocks, MOSL estimates a 6% growth, anchored by financials. Sales and EBITDA for the Nifty constituents are likely to improve 13% YoY and 9% YoY, respectively.

The US-Iran conflict, which began in the last month of the quarter, has sharply driven crude oil prices higher. Brent crude prices have risen to a high of $120 per barrel in a month, and WTI crude prices have jumped to $115, impacting several energy and crude-derivatives consuming sectors. Motilal Oswal said the impact of higher energy costs is also reflected in the earnings revisions, as the trend of positive earnings revisions over the past two quarters reversed in Q4.

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Despite this backdrop, there are several Nifty 50 stocks that are poised to deliver a healthy set of earnings, according to MOSL's analysis. Nineteen of 50 stocks are likely to post a profit growth of 10% or more on a YoY basis, with four names, Eternal, Titan, JSW Steel, and Tata Steel, slated to record a sharp rise of 50% and above.

Eternal, formerly known as Zomato, is expected to lead in terms of profit growth as MOSL sees a massive 432% YoY growth in its PAT to ₹207.5 crore during Q4FY26, helped by strong net order value (NOV) despite disruptions related to LPG in the last month of the quarter. MOSL said that net order value for food delivery and quick commerce could rise by 17.5% and 98.4% YoY. Meanwhile, Eternal's revenue is estimated to rise by 180.6% to ₹1636.5 crore in the said period.

JSW Steel's adjusted PAT is seen rising 77.3% to ₹2,830 crore during Q4FY26, while revenue may rise 12.4% to ₹50,380 crore. The brokerage expects NSR to offset the cost impact and drive margins QoQ in Q4. As for Tata Steel, the expectations are of a sharp 55% rise in adjusted PAT to ₹2,630 crore, as better NSR is expected to drive Q4 earnings, offsetting the impact of higher input costs and subdued volumes.

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Titan's stellar performance is expected to continue in Q4FY26 despite a sharp surge in gold prices of 80% YoY in the said quarter. Strong demand amid the festive season and wedding period, along with higher old gold exchange-led purchases and attractive promotional offers, supported the jewellery companies' performance. Gold coin sales continued to remain elevated amid rising gold prices. MOSL has pegged Titan's Q4 PAT growth at 58.7% YoY to ₹1,380 crore and revenue at ₹19,940 crore, up 33.7%.