Energy Shock and Interest Rate Fears to Keep Commodity Markets in a State of Uncertainty Next Week

Global Market Update as of March 27

Market Sentiment

Global markets continued to be shaped by uncertainty over the duration and scope of the Iran conflict, with risk appetite eroding in the absence of any credible path toward de-escalation. This sentiment was reflected in the US Dollar closing above the 100 mark for the second time in three weeks, solidifying its role as the safe-haven currency of choice.

Equities and Commodities

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US equities registered a fifth consecutive weekly decline, a move that now reflects a broader reassessment of the macroeconomic outlook. Persistently elevated crude oil prices have compelled markets to scale back their rate-cut expectations, even as the Federal Reserve maintains its guidance of modest easing through 2026.

• Gold prices on COMEX fell for the fourth straight week, ending just below $4,500 per ounce, as forced liquidation and fading expectations of rate cuts weighed on prices.
• Silver showed some stability this week, ending flat after several weeks of losses.
• Base metals, particularly copper, fared better, recovering after sharp losses in the preceding week, supported by a softening in US rhetoric and the temporary deferral of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
• Oil prices remained sensitive to headlines, ending the week higher, with WTI above $101 per barrel and Brent above $114.5 a barrel.

India Market Update

• MCX Crude Oil futures remained bullish this week, closing near Rs 9,395 per barrel (+4.4 percent), supported by prices sustaining above the 20-day EMA (Rs 8,287) and a positive Supertrend.
• The market is consolidating near the key resistance zone of Rs 9,560–9,620 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement), indicating short-term supply.
• Immediate supports are placed at Rs 8,741 and Rs 8,175, while a breakout above Rs 9,620 may push prices towards Rs 9,969–10,485.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Looking Ahead

Markets will closely track a slew of key US economic releases, including labour market indicators, retail sales data, ISM manufacturing figures, and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, in the prevailing environment, their impact appears muted, as geopolitical uncertainty continues to overshadow fundamentals.