Emkay Global Sees Delhivery Targeting Rs 500

Delhivery Research Report

Overview

We are revising our outlook for Delhivery, a leading 3PL operator in India, based on the company's strong market position and favorable industry trends. Our research indicates that Delhivery is well-placed to benefit from the consolidation of the e-commerce logistics market, particularly in the B2C express segment.

Key Drivers

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Our analysis suggests that Delhivery will experience a 19% volume CAGR (16% organic) from FY25-28E, driven by:

• Consolidation of the e-commerce logistics market, with the closure of Ecom Express creating opportunities for Delhivery to expand its market share.
• Reduction of deep discounting, as the industry matures and focuses on profitability rather than market share gains.
• Key customer signaling a halt to insourcing, as it realigns its network in response to the closure of Ecom Express.

Revenue and EBITDA Growth

We expect Delhivery to deliver 14% overall revenue CAGR and an EBITDA margin expansion of ~750bps from FY25-28E. The recovery in volume in the B2C segment (9MFY26 organic growth at 20% YoY vs 1% in FY25) and the growth of the PTL business will drive this expansion.

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Outlook and Valuation

At current market prices, Delhivery trades at 17x FY28E EV/EBITDA. We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a target price of Rs500.