El Nino Prospects Pose Challenges for Farmers: Centre Pledges Support

El Nino Alert: WMO Raises Probability to 80 Percent

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a critical update on the El Nino forecast for the June-August 2026 period, with a significant increase in the probability of the weather phenomenon developing to 80 percent. According to the WMO forecast, conditions are likely to be at least moderate in strength and could become strong, with far-reaching implications for global temperatures and extreme weather patterns.

El Nino's Impact on Global Temperatures

Warm ocean waters are fuelling the development of El Nino, leading to an increase in global temperatures and driving extreme weather and rainfall patterns. Above-average temperatures are forecast for nearly everywhere from June to August, with severe consequences for agriculture, economies, and human populations.

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Government Response to El Nino Challenge

The Indian government has taken note of the El Nino concerns and is taking swift action to protect farmers' interests. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, minister for Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare and Rural Development, has assured the public that there is no need to panic and that timely preparation is the need of the hour. The Centre has directed special monitoring and swift action in states and districts that are likely to receive low rainfall.

Focus on Seeds, Water Management, and Alternative Crops

The government is focusing on seeds, moisture conservation, water management, and alternative crop planning to mitigate the impact of El Nino. Notably, water levels in reservoirs are better than normal, which is giving a boost to the Kharif crop. The Centre has also directed expedited crop insurance to provide relief to farmers and has issued advisories to encourage farmers to increase the area under pulses and oilseeds.

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Economic Impact of El Nino

According to Ashok Gulati, a distinguished professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), the likely impact of El Nino on India's economy will be severe. He forecasts that the growth in agriculture may plummet to less than 1 percent in 2026-27, with a subsequent impact on overall GDP growth and farmers' income. The economist also warns that food prices, particularly oilseeds, pulses, edible oil, and cotton, will be affected due to the drought conditions.

Silver Lining

Despite the dire predictions, there is a silver lining. Rice and wheat stocks are more than sufficient, and price pressures can be managed. However, the government and farmers must remain vigilant and take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of El Nino on agriculture and the economy.