Economic Outlook and Geopolitical Tensions to Influence Global Markets on April 2

Nifty 50 Bounces Back Amidst Trump's Remarks and Oil Price Decline

The Nifty 50 snapped a two-day losing streak and closed over 1.5 percent higher on April 1, following remarks by Donald Trump signaling potential de-escalation of the West Asia conflict and a decline in oil prices. Trump indicated that he wants the Strait of Hormuz to reopen before a ceasefire. The setup remains bearish, although there has been some improvement in risk appetite. The index needs to extend its upward move and fill Monday's bearish gap by surpassing the 22,800–22,850 zone to pave the way for an upmove toward 23,000–23,200.

Key Levels for the Nifty 50

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The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle on the daily timeframe after a gap-up opening, signaling a strong presence of sellers at higher levels. There is a triple divergence, with prices making lower lows and the RSI making higher lows. However, the index needs follow-through buying interest and a break above the prior swing high for strong confirmation in the upcoming sessions. The RSI is yet to cross above the 40 mark, while the MACD remains well below the zero line, reinforcing the underlying bearish bias. It remains premature to conclude that a bottom has been formed.

Key Levels for the Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty formed a small-bodied bullish candle with shadows on both sides, resembling a doji-like candlestick pattern (though not a classical one) on the daily charts. This indicates intraday indecision despite a gap-up opening and a close of over 2 percent higher. The lower high–lower low structure remains intact, and the index continues to trade below all key moving averages. Notably, the 50-day EMA has fallen below the 200-day EMA for the first time since April 2025. However, a triple divergence (a potential trend reversal pattern) is visible. The RSI remains below the 40 zone at 34.61, and the MACD sustains below both the zero and signal lines. All these indicators suggest that the broader trend remains weak, despite early signs of stabilization.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Nifty Call Options Data

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,000 strike, which saw an addition of 15.95 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,500 and 22,700 strikes, which added 15.28 lakh and 14.63 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 22,500 strike, which shed 8.28 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,400 and 22,300 strikes, which shed 4.45 lakh and 3.26 lakh contracts, respectively.

Nifty Put Options Data

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 22,700 strike, which saw an addition of 18.08 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,800 and 22,900 strikes, which added 9.72 lakh and 9.19 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 23,200 strike, which shed 1.09 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,250 and 23,400 strikes, which shed 66,040 and 8,840 contracts, respectively.

Bank Nifty Call Options Data

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 53,000 strike, which added 1.23 lakh contracts, followed by the 52,000 strike and 51,500 strike, which added 1.17 lakh and 79,380 contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 51,000 strike, which shed 68,040 contracts, followed by the 50,500 and 50,400 strikes, which shed 30,270 and 29,880 contracts, respectively.

Bank Nifty Put Options Data

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 51,000 strike, which added 1.84 lakh contracts, followed by the 51,500 strike and 51,700 strike, which added 82,470 and 62,520 contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 50,500 strike, which shed 28,320 contracts, followed by the 50,400 and 53,000 strikes, which shed 17,640 and 13,590 contracts, respectively.

Funds Flow (Rs crore)

The funds flow data is not provided in the original text.

Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) rose to 0.93 on April 1, compared to a 0.92 in the previous session. The increasing PCR indicates that traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates a firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market.

India VIX

The fear index, India VIX, declined by 10.32 percent to 25.01 after a rally in the previous couple of sessions, providing some comfort to bulls. However, strong support for bulls is unlikely unless the VIX falls and sustains below the 18 zone.

Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit. No stocks were added to or removed from the F&O ban list on April 1.