Dalal Street Week Ahead: Key Market Indicators to Watch Amid US-Iran Tensions, Oil Price Volatility, Q4 Earnings and Global Economic Data

Equity Markets Report Stellar Performance Despite Volatility

The equity markets delivered a stellar performance last week, rising nearly 6 percent - the biggest weekly gain since February 2021 - in the week ended April 10. This surge was driven by the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, falling oil prices below $100 per barrel, and hopes of a potential agreement for de-escalation in West Asia.

RBI Maintains Status Quo on Policy Rates

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained a status quo on policy rates while lowering its FY27 growth outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes struck a hawkish tone during the week, further adding to the market's volatility.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Domestic Bond Yields Soften

With inflation fears waning, domestic bond yields softened to 6.9 percent from 7.129 percent during the week. This renewed interest in rate-sensitive sectors, particularly banking.

Market to Remain Volatile Next Week

In the coming truncated week starting April 13, the sustainability of this uptrend will be key to watch. The market is expected to remain volatile and range-bound, with a positive bias next week. Investors will focus on the next round of talks between the US and Iran, movement in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, the next batch of quarterly earnings, FII sentiment, and China's March quarter GDP numbers, according to experts.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Key Market Indicators

Market Participants to Watch

The market will remain shut on April 14 for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti. Investors will be closely watching the US-Iran ceasefire, oil prices, China's growth numbers, global economic data, corporate earnings, domestic economic data, Indian rupee, FII flow, IPO action, technical view, F&O cues, and India VIX.

US-Iran Ceasefire and Oil Prices

The two-week US-Iran ceasefire that started on April 8 has lifted equity markets sentiment and dragged oil prices down. The first round of peace talks held between US and Iran officials over the weekend in Islamabad failed to reach an agreement. The Strait of Hormuz, which was also one of the discussion points, has not seen significantly improving traffic yet.

China's March Quarter GDP Numbers

China's growth numbers for the first quarter of the current year, due on April 16, will be closely watched. The world's largest economy grew at 4.5 percent in December 2025 quarter, falling from 4.8 percent growth in the previous month.

Global Economic Data

The US PPI, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, weekly jobs data, and remarks from several Federal Reserve officials will also be closely watched for clues on the inflation and rate outlook. Europe's inflation is expected to increase in March from 1.9 percent in the previous month.

Corporate Earnings

Around 50 companies will release their quarterly earnings in the coming week, including prominent names from the Nifty 50 list - HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Life Insurance Company, and Wipro.

Domestic Economic Data (Inflation)

The market participants will keep an eye on inflation data for the month of March due on April 13, which is expected to increase to 3.4-3.5 percent from 3.21 percent in February.

Indian Rupee

The focus will also be on the Indian rupee, which recovered sharply by 2.2 percent in the previous week (ended April 3) followed by weakness of 0.41 percent in the recent week (ended April 10) to finish at 93.05 against the US dollar index.

IPO Action

The primary market has not seen significant pick-up yet, though there has been a sharp recovery in the equity markets since the announcement of the Iran ceasefire. Only two public issues will hit Dalal Street next week - one each from the mainboard and SME segment.

Technical View and F&O Cues

The market looked much better than the past more than a month period with strengthening momentum indicators and oscillators. The Nifty 50 climbed above short-term moving averages (10 and 20-day EMAs), which both trended upward. The weekly options data suggested that the 24,000 is likely to be a crucial level for further direction in the index going ahead.

India VIX

The India VIX, the fear gauge, fell sharply by 26.14 percent to 18.85 in the recent week and nearly 35 percent from its multi-year high of 28.9 in the previous week, signaling rising support to the bulls.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:

• Citius Transnet Investment Trust will open its Rs 1,105 crore initial public offering (IPO) for subscription on April 17.
• Mehul Telecom, a Gujarat-based multi-brand mobile retail chain, will open its Rs 28-crore offer in the SME segment on April 17 with a price band of Rs 96-98 per share.
• Om Power Transmission will close its Rs 150-crore public issue on April 13 and make its debut on the bourses on April 17.
• Safety Controls & Devices, and Emiac Technologies will be available for trading on the BSE SME effective April 13.