Crude Oil Prices Rise Above $115 Amid Escalating Conflict in West Asia

Global Oil Prices Climb Sharply Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict

Global oil prices surged on Monday, with Brent crude rising nearly 3% to trade around $115.9 a barrel in early Asian hours. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped over 3% to above $103 a barrel, driven by concerns over further disruption to energy supplies.

The sharp rally follows weekend missile launches by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement, which has added a fresh layer of risk to global oil markets already strained by weeks of conflict. The group's track record of disrupting shipping routes is particularly concerning, with analysts warning that renewed threats could again choke a vital energy corridor.

Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub at Yanbu, which lies within range of Houthi missile capabilities, is a key concern for market participants. Any disruption there could further tighten supplies, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains under strain due to the ongoing conflict.

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Market signals are already reflecting tight near-term supply, with Brent's rapid spread widening significantly. Front-month contracts are trading at a premium of more than $7 a barrel over subsequent deliveries, a bullish structure indicating immediate supply concerns.

Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, with the U.S. deploying thousands of additional troops to the region. While senior officials have downplayed the likelihood of extended ground operations in Iran, President Donald Trump's suggestion of seizing the key export hub on Kharg Island has added to market jitters.

Some analysts caution that the current surge is being driven more by geopolitical risk premiums than actual supply losses, at least for now. Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP, notes that "unless it spills into broader Gulf infrastructure or Hormuz flows, it's more volatility than a true supply shock."