Crude Oil Prices Experience Flat Performance Following Significant Gains in Previous Sessions

US-Iran Ceasefire Extension Sends Oil Prices into a Holding Pattern

On Wednesday, April 22, oil prices remained largely unchanged after an initial surge of around $1 in early Asian trading. Investors are evaluating the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations following Washington's decision to extend the ceasefire. Brent crude hovered near $98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $89.

In India, crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) were down marginally by 0.33% at ₹8,401 per barrel. According to Kaynat Chainwala, AVP, Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, prices softened slightly today as US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire. However, persistent uncertainty around the proposal, marked by the absence of a clear timeline and no confirmation from Iran, is keeping markets cautious.

Trump said on Tuesday that the US would pause any new attacks on Iran for now, but would continue restricting vessels tied to the Islamic Republic until negotiations are resolved "one way or the other." If the US were to ease its blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, "there can never be a deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their country, including its leadership," Trump added in a post on Truth Social.

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The ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf and the disruption to shipping through Hormuz, a crucial route that typically handles around one-fifth of global crude supply, are driving oil markets' volatility. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely suspended on Tuesday, with only three vessels transiting the route over the previous 24 hours, according to a Reuters report.

Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Russian oil to Europe, is prepared to restart operations. Russia plans to halt oil shipments from Kazakhstan to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline from May 1, according to Reuters.

Near-Term Outlook for Crude Oil Prices

The price retracement appears more like a tactical consolidation than a shift in sentiment, according to Chainwala. The near-term direction will depend on whether tensions intensify further or if last-minute negotiations succeed in preventing additional supply disruptions.

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The technical outlook indicates that MCX Crude Oil is currently trading near the ₹8,400 zone, having broken above the prior ₹8,000-₹8,350 consolidation range and surging to a peak near ₹8,600 before pulling back. Price action remains volatile, with ₹8,530 now acting as immediate resistance. A sustained move above this level could reopen the path toward ₹8,650-₹8,860. On the downside, ₹8,200 serves as the key support; a decisive break below could expose the ₹8,120-₹7,945 zone. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish driven by ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.