Crude Oil Prices End Losing Streak, Brent Crude Reaches $105 per Barrel: A Look Ahead

Global Oil Prices Recover Amid Persistent Supply Concerns and Iran Conflict Uncertainty

Oil prices surged on Thursday, driven by persistent supply concerns and uncertainty over a possible resolution to the Iran conflict. After two consecutive sessions of decline, Brent crude futures gained 81 cents, or 0.77%, to trade at $105.83 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 97 cents, or 0.99%, to $99.23.

The recovery in oil prices was also reflected in the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), where crude oil prices surged as much as 1.07% to ₹9,564 per barrel, tracking global prices. The drawdown in US crude inventories also heightened fears over tightening global stockpiles, further contributing to the price increase.

The Iran conflict remains a major concern, with US President Donald Trump stating that negotiations with Iran were nearing completion, while also warning of additional military action if Tehran failed to agree to a peace deal. Iran, meanwhile, cautioned against any further attacks and announced measures to strengthen its control over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that previously handled oil and liquefied natural gas exports accounting for nearly 20% of global consumption before the conflict disrupted operations.

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Iran unveiled a new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" and said a "controlled maritime zone" would be established in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Tehran had effectively shut the strait in response to US and Israeli strikes that triggered the war on February 28. Although most hostilities have subsided following an April ceasefire, Iran continues to restrict movement through Hormuz, while the U.S. has maintained a blockade along Iran's coastline.

The US Energy Information Administration reported that the United States drew nearly 10 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week — the largest weekly withdrawal ever recorded. This move is likely to further tighten global stockpiles and contribute to the upward pressure on oil prices.

Crude Oil Price Outlook

According to analysts, oil prices are expected to remain volatile and highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Any setback in negotiations is likely to trigger renewed upward pressure. Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, noted that WTI has support around $102, and a sustained break below that level could expose prices toward $98, while resistance is seen near the $108–110 zone. Brent support is placed around $105, while resistance is seen in the $112–115 region.

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On the technical outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that immediate resistance is placed at ₹1,58,800– ₹1,59,300; a sustained move above this zone could help strengthen momentum and push prices toward ₹1,59,800– ₹1,60,500. On the downside, ₹1,58,000– ₹1,57,500 acts as immediate support, while a break below this range may extend weakness toward ₹1,56,000– ₹1,55,000.

The near-term bias remains cautious with a weak undertone, and a decisive move above resistance levels remains crucial for improving momentum. Direction continues to depend on global risk sentiment.