Crude Oil Price Stabilizes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit Amid Brent Prices of Approximately $105 per Barrel

Global Oil Supplies Remain Under Threat as US-Iran Conflict Continues

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, 14 May, as investors closely watched the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for any positive developments regarding the Iran conflict, which has severely impacted global oil supplies. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran have led to a significant disruption in Middle East oil production, reversing the International Energy Agency's earlier projection of a supply surplus.

Brent Crude Futures Gain 26 Cents, WTI Crude Futures Rise 32 Cents

Brent crude futures gained 26 cents, or 0.25%, to $105.89 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 32 cents, or 0.32%, to $101.34 per barrel. Both benchmark contracts had declined on Wednesday, with Brent crude dropping more than $2 a barrel and WTI crude over $1.

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Indian Crude Oil Prices Turn Green

Back home, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also turned green after opening in the red. MCX crude oil prices rose marginally to ₹9,713 per barrel.

Trump to Meet Xi Jinping in Crucial Discussions

US President Donald Trump was accorded a grand welcome at the Great Hall of the People on Thursday ahead of key discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expected to focus on the fragile trade truce between the two nations, the Iran conflict, and US arms sales to Taiwan, according to a Reuters report. Although Trump has said he does not believe China's support is necessary to end the war, he is still expected to seek Xi's assistance in helping resolve the expensive and politically unpopular conflict.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Iran Strengthens Grip Over the Strait

Meanwhile, Iran appears to have strengthened its grip over the strait by striking agreements with Iraq and Pakistan to transport oil and liquefied natural gas from the region. A ceasefire has remained in effect since early April despite intermittent flare-ups. Still, the US and Iran have made limited headway in bridging their differences or finalising a peace proposal. As a result, the strait has effectively remained shut, disrupting critical energy supplies to global markets.

Global Oil Supply Expected to Lag Demand

The International Energy Agency quoted by Reuters on Wednesday said that global oil supply is now expected to lag demand this year, as the conflict severely disrupts Middle East oil production and depletes inventories at a record pace.

Expert Analysis

Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, believes that India remains relatively cushioned for now, but no large oil-importing economy is fully insulated from a deficit of this scale. If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by the end of May, today's price is a floor, not a ceiling.

Technical Outlook

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that MCX Crude Oil is trading in the ₹9,600–₹9,700 zone, attempting to stabilise after a sharp pullback from recent highs. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, with direction contingent on ongoing developments in the Strait of Hormuz and global supply disruption risks.