Chartist Analysis: Nifty Price Targets Lowered to 23,000 Amid Weekly Close Below 24,300; Analysts Bullish on Sun Pharma and ABB

Market Outlook: Bearish Indications in Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 has given all bearish indications, with a close below 24,300 confirming the breach of key support and potentially leading to further declines to 23,000/21,500, according to Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.

The current geopolitical situation remains fragile, with no signs of improvement, and elevated crude oil prices posing a risk to Indian markets. Technically, the Nifty 50 has breached key averages and momentum indicators have turned bearish, indicating a sell-on-rally market.

Trading Strategy

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The recommended approach is to stay tactically bearish-to-neutral with a "sell-on-rise, buy-only-at-extremes" strategy. This involves:

• Keeping gross exposure light and focusing on intraday/2-3-day swings
• Selling out-of-the-money Call spreads on Nifty/Bank Nifty near resistance and hedging with limited Put exposure around key supports
• Deploying fresh cash equity in a staggered fashion into selected high-conviction names only

Key Levels to Watch

• Support zone: 24,300-24,000
• Resistance levels: 24,800, followed by 25,000
• A huge Call built up at 25,000 would make it difficult for markets to close above that level easily

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

FII Positioning

• FIIs have been net sellers in index futures in recent sessions, with a negative bias in index futures and index options indicating more protective or speculative bearish positioning.

Oil Prices

• Brent crude has broken out of a weekly Bollinger band squeeze with good volumes, with the next strong resistance around $110-120 a barrel in the short to medium term.

Bank Nifty

• The Bank Nifty looks precarious after its weekly close, showing signs of a rising wedge pattern breakdown, which is not a good sign for the bulls.