Bulls Maintain Momentum for Third Consecutive Session, Nifty 50 Uptrend Faces Key Sustainability Test Amid Elevated VIX Levels, Nifty Bank Targets 53,000

Nifty 50 Continues Uptrend, Fills Bearish Gap

The Nifty 50 has maintained its uptrend for the third consecutive session, closing above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since March 25. The index also moved back above the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high.

The index started the week strongly, filling the bearish gap of March 30, which is a positive sign. Momentum indicators have shown improvement, indicating a potential shift in sentiment. However, the sustainability of this uptrend is crucial in determining whether the current pullback evolves into a more durable rebound or remains a short-lived relief rally.

Key Levels to Watch

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The next immediate hurdle for the Nifty 50 is placed at 23,000. Sustaining above this level can open the door for 23,400-23,500, which is a crucial zone for strengthening bullish sentiment. However, immediate support is seen at 22,700, followed by 22,500.

Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 opened higher at 22,780 and turned lower in the morning session to hit an intraday low of 22,543 amid range-bound trading. However, the index turned positive and gained strength in the latter part of the session, hitting a day's high of 22,998 in late trade before closing at 22,968, up 255 points (1.12 percent).

On the daily charts, the index formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow, indicating a positive bias with buying interest at lower levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed above the 40 zone to 41.26, forming a higher high–higher low pattern, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turned bullish with the first green bar in the histogram since February 23.

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Expert Views

According to Nilesh Jain, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, the overall structure is gradually turning positive, suggesting a continuation of the upward move towards 23,200, followed by 23,400 levels. Support has also shifted higher to the 22,500 zone, he added.

Options Data

The weekly options data indicates a trading range of 22,500-23,500 for the Nifty 50. The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 23,500 strike, followed by the 23,200 and 23,000 strikes, while the 22,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 22,600 and 22,700 strikes.

India VIX Remains Elevated

The India VIX remains elevated around 25, though it was down 0.21 percent to 25.46. A cooling-off in volatility would be essential for sustained bullish momentum.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Bank also witnessed buying interest for three consecutive days and filled the bearish gap of March 30, closing 1,060 points (2.06 percent) higher at 52,609. The index formed a green candle with a lower shadow on the daily charts for another session, indicating an improving trend with consistent buying at lower levels.

Key Levels to Watch for Bank Nifty

Notably, the index has moved above its 10-day EMA, while the daily RSI has risen above the 40 mark and is trading above its 9-day EMA. The MACD is climbing toward the signal line, with histogram weakness fading further. This configuration indicates a shift in sentiment from a strong bearish phase toward a sideways to mildly positive bias.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the 53,000-53,100 zone will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. A sustainable move above 53,100 could trigger an extension of the pullback rally toward 53,600, followed by 54,100 in the short term.

On the downside, 52,100-52,000 is expected to provide crucial support, he added.