Brokerage Firm Prabhudas Lilladher Sets Target Price of Rs 332 for Greenpanel Industries

Greenpanel Industries Sees 27.8% YoY Growth in MDF Volume

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report highlights the performance of Greenpanel Industries, with the company's MDF volume growing by 27.8% year-over-year (YoY) to 130,000 CBM in the latest quarter. This growth can be attributed to a healthy domestic volume, which increased by 29.5% YoY. Despite the rise in MDF margins to 9.2%, the company faced challenges due to significant increases in chemical prices, which account for approximately 40% of the raw material costs.

The company reported Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) scheme incentives of Rs 62 million in Q4FY26, which helped support MDF margins and is yet to accrue around Rs 260 million. In Q4FY26, timber prices remained relatively stable, while chemical prices increased by 40-45% YoY due to supply-chain disruptions and elevated freight costs linked to the Middle East conflict. To mitigate the impact of rising raw material costs, the company implemented cumulative price hikes of approximately 15%.

Earnings Estimates Reduced

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Given the geopolitical uncertainties and volatile input costs, the management refrained from providing formal FY27 revenue and margin guidance. However, they expect domestic MDF industry demand to grow in the mid-teen to high-teen range, with the company likely to grow in line with or ahead of the industry.

Maintained 'BUY' Rating with Revised Target Price

Based on the above factors, Prabhudas Lilladher has maintained a 'BUY' rating for Greenpanel Industries with a revised target price of Rs 332 (earlier Rs 370), based on 20x Mar'28 earnings. The research firm estimates revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGR of 15.2%, 74.6%, and 219.6% respectively over FY26-28E, with MDF volume CAGR of 19.3%.

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